Despite the Trump administration's aggressive military posture in Latin America—including the January 2026 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and threats of operations against Colombian cartels—traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no U.S. invasion of Colombia this year, reflecting Colombia's longstanding status as a major non-NATO ally with deep counternarcotics cooperation. Recent de-escalation came March 31 when U.S. officials assured President Gustavo Petro he faces no charges despite DOJ scrutiny of alleged drug ties, amid Petro's criticisms of the war on drugs. Colombia's March 8 legislative elections and upcoming May presidential vote introduce uncertainty, but no troop mobilizations, congressional authorizations, or official invasion plans have emerged, underscoring significant barriers to escalation beyond targeted strikes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$24,853 交易量
$24,853 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$24,853 交易量
$24,853 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite the Trump administration's aggressive military posture in Latin America—including the January 2026 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and threats of operations against Colombian cartels—traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no U.S. invasion of Colombia this year, reflecting Colombia's longstanding status as a major non-NATO ally with deep counternarcotics cooperation. Recent de-escalation came March 31 when U.S. officials assured President Gustavo Petro he faces no charges despite DOJ scrutiny of alleged drug ties, amid Petro's criticisms of the war on drugs. Colombia's March 8 legislative elections and upcoming May presidential vote introduce uncertainty, but no troop mobilizations, congressional authorizations, or official invasion plans have emerged, underscoring significant barriers to escalation beyond targeted strikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
交易量
$24,853結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite the Trump administration's aggressive military posture in Latin America—including the January 2026 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and threats of operations against Colombian cartels—traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no U.S. invasion of Colombia this year, reflecting Colombia's longstanding status as a major non-NATO ally with deep counternarcotics cooperation. Recent de-escalation came March 31 when U.S. officials assured President Gustavo Petro he faces no charges despite DOJ scrutiny of alleged drug ties, amid Petro's criticisms of the war on drugs. Colombia's March 8 legislative elections and upcoming May presidential vote introduce uncertainty, but no troop mobilizations, congressional authorizations, or official invasion plans have emerged, underscoring significant barriers to escalation beyond targeted strikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$24,853結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite the Trump administration's aggressive military posture in Latin America—including the January 2026 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and threats of operations against Colombian cartels—traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no U.S. invasion of Colombia this year, reflecting Colombia's longstanding status as a major non-NATO ally with deep counternarcotics cooperation. Recent de-escalation came March 31 when U.S. officials assured President Gustavo Petro he faces no charges despite DOJ scrutiny of alleged drug ties, amid Petro's criticisms of the war on drugs. Colombia's March 8 legislative elections and upcoming May presidential vote introduce uncertainty, but no troop mobilizations, congressional authorizations, or official invasion plans have emerged, underscoring significant barriers to escalation beyond targeted strikes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions