The US special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026—hailed by President Trump as a swift operation—stands as the sole such event this year, driving trader consensus to 92.5% on "No" for another capture before December 31. With Venezuela now under interim leadership via Delcy Rodríguez amid military reshuffles and restored US ties, attention has shifted to diplomatic stabilization rather than further regime change, as seen in recent amnesty releases and no new announcements targeting leaders in Cuba, Iran, or elsewhere. Absent active invasions, escalation signals, or special operations planning, historical rarity of these high-stakes raids reinforces the low-probability outlook despite occasional rhetoric from figures like Senator Ted Cruz. Late-breaking military actions or sudden crises could shift odds, but none loom on the horizon.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$46,268 交易量
$46,268 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$46,268 交易量
$46,268 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026—hailed by President Trump as a swift operation—stands as the sole such event this year, driving trader consensus to 92.5% on "No" for another capture before December 31. With Venezuela now under interim leadership via Delcy Rodríguez amid military reshuffles and restored US ties, attention has shifted to diplomatic stabilization rather than further regime change, as seen in recent amnesty releases and no new announcements targeting leaders in Cuba, Iran, or elsewhere. Absent active invasions, escalation signals, or special operations planning, historical rarity of these high-stakes raids reinforces the low-probability outlook despite occasional rhetoric from figures like Senator Ted Cruz. Late-breaking military actions or sudden crises could shift odds, but none loom on the horizon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
交易量
$46,268結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026—hailed by President Trump as a swift operation—stands as the sole such event this year, driving trader consensus to 92.5% on "No" for another capture before December 31. With Venezuela now under interim leadership via Delcy Rodríguez amid military reshuffles and restored US ties, attention has shifted to diplomatic stabilization rather than further regime change, as seen in recent amnesty releases and no new announcements targeting leaders in Cuba, Iran, or elsewhere. Absent active invasions, escalation signals, or special operations planning, historical rarity of these high-stakes raids reinforces the low-probability outlook despite occasional rhetoric from figures like Senator Ted Cruz. Late-breaking military actions or sudden crises could shift odds, but none loom on the horizon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$46,268結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026—hailed by President Trump as a swift operation—stands as the sole such event this year, driving trader consensus to 92.5% on "No" for another capture before December 31. With Venezuela now under interim leadership via Delcy Rodríguez amid military reshuffles and restored US ties, attention has shifted to diplomatic stabilization rather than further regime change, as seen in recent amnesty releases and no new announcements targeting leaders in Cuba, Iran, or elsewhere. Absent active invasions, escalation signals, or special operations planning, historical rarity of these high-stakes raids reinforces the low-probability outlook despite occasional rhetoric from figures like Senator Ted Cruz. Late-breaking military actions or sudden crises could shift odds, but none loom on the horizon.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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