Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% for Tesla opening Robovan orders before 2027, driven by the absence of any substantive progress on the autonomous van concept unveiled in October 2024, with no prototypes, testing data, or production timelines announced since. Tesla's focus remains on Cybercab robotaxi production ramping this month amid historically slow initial scaling for novel vehicles, compounded by regulatory hurdles—California reports zero robotaxis operating and Tesla logging no autonomous test miles in 2025, far short of required thresholds for driverless deployment. Elon Musk's vague March 25 tease of a "cooler than minivan" people-hauler offered no specifics, reinforcing skepticism. Q1 earnings on April 22 could catalyze shifts with FSD and autonomy updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$22,540 交易量
$22,540 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$22,540 交易量
$22,540 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% for Tesla opening Robovan orders before 2027, driven by the absence of any substantive progress on the autonomous van concept unveiled in October 2024, with no prototypes, testing data, or production timelines announced since. Tesla's focus remains on Cybercab robotaxi production ramping this month amid historically slow initial scaling for novel vehicles, compounded by regulatory hurdles—California reports zero robotaxis operating and Tesla logging no autonomous test miles in 2025, far short of required thresholds for driverless deployment. Elon Musk's vague March 25 tease of a "cooler than minivan" people-hauler offered no specifics, reinforcing skepticism. Q1 earnings on April 22 could catalyze shifts with FSD and autonomy updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ET
交易量
$22,540結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% for Tesla opening Robovan orders before 2027, driven by the absence of any substantive progress on the autonomous van concept unveiled in October 2024, with no prototypes, testing data, or production timelines announced since. Tesla's focus remains on Cybercab robotaxi production ramping this month amid historically slow initial scaling for novel vehicles, compounded by regulatory hurdles—California reports zero robotaxis operating and Tesla logging no autonomous test miles in 2025, far short of required thresholds for driverless deployment. Elon Musk's vague March 25 tease of a "cooler than minivan" people-hauler offered no specifics, reinforcing skepticism. Q1 earnings on April 22 could catalyze shifts with FSD and autonomy updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$22,540結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% for Tesla opening Robovan orders before 2027, driven by the absence of any substantive progress on the autonomous van concept unveiled in October 2024, with no prototypes, testing data, or production timelines announced since. Tesla's focus remains on Cybercab robotaxi production ramping this month amid historically slow initial scaling for novel vehicles, compounded by regulatory hurdles—California reports zero robotaxis operating and Tesla logging no autonomous test miles in 2025, far short of required thresholds for driverless deployment. Elon Musk's vague March 25 tease of a "cooler than minivan" people-hauler offered no specifics, reinforcing skepticism. Q1 earnings on April 22 could catalyze shifts with FSD and autonomy updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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