Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against Tesla opening orders for the Robovan before 2027, driven by the absence of any official announcements, website listings, or executive teases for pre-orders amid a sharp pivot to Cybercab robotaxi production. Recent Q1 2026 delivery reports highlighted autonomy focus, with Cybercab lines targeting hundreds weekly per March updates, while custom Model S and X orders ended April 1, signaling resource reallocation to nearer-term self-driving vehicles. Robovan remains a de-prioritized concept from late 2025 shareholder notes, facing steeper regulatory hurdles for its 20-passenger driverless design and Full Self-Driving (FSD) unsupervised approval. Key catalysts include the April 22 earnings call and FSD regulatory milestones.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$22,540 交易量
$22,540 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$22,540 交易量
$22,540 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against Tesla opening orders for the Robovan before 2027, driven by the absence of any official announcements, website listings, or executive teases for pre-orders amid a sharp pivot to Cybercab robotaxi production. Recent Q1 2026 delivery reports highlighted autonomy focus, with Cybercab lines targeting hundreds weekly per March updates, while custom Model S and X orders ended April 1, signaling resource reallocation to nearer-term self-driving vehicles. Robovan remains a de-prioritized concept from late 2025 shareholder notes, facing steeper regulatory hurdles for its 20-passenger driverless design and Full Self-Driving (FSD) unsupervised approval. Key catalysts include the April 22 earnings call and FSD regulatory milestones.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ET
交易量
$22,540結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against Tesla opening orders for the Robovan before 2027, driven by the absence of any official announcements, website listings, or executive teases for pre-orders amid a sharp pivot to Cybercab robotaxi production. Recent Q1 2026 delivery reports highlighted autonomy focus, with Cybercab lines targeting hundreds weekly per March updates, while custom Model S and X orders ended April 1, signaling resource reallocation to nearer-term self-driving vehicles. Robovan remains a de-prioritized concept from late 2025 shareholder notes, facing steeper regulatory hurdles for its 20-passenger driverless design and Full Self-Driving (FSD) unsupervised approval. Key catalysts include the April 22 earnings call and FSD regulatory milestones.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$22,540結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against Tesla opening orders for the Robovan before 2027, driven by the absence of any official announcements, website listings, or executive teases for pre-orders amid a sharp pivot to Cybercab robotaxi production. Recent Q1 2026 delivery reports highlighted autonomy focus, with Cybercab lines targeting hundreds weekly per March updates, while custom Model S and X orders ended April 1, signaling resource reallocation to nearer-term self-driving vehicles. Robovan remains a de-prioritized concept from late 2025 shareholder notes, facing steeper regulatory hurdles for its 20-passenger driverless design and Full Self-Driving (FSD) unsupervised approval. Key catalysts include the April 22 earnings call and FSD regulatory milestones.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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