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世界·全球選舉

任何總統候選人會在第一輪哥倫比亞選舉中獲勝嗎？

Market icon
世界·全球選舉

任何總統候選人會在第一輪哥倫比亞選舉中獲勝嗎？

是

14% 機率
Polymarket
最新

是

14% 機率
Polymarket
最新
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polls, including those from Guarumo-Ecoanalítica and Centro Nacional de Consultoría in late March 2026, show no presidential candidate approaching the 50%+1 threshold needed for an outright first-round win on May 31, with leftist Iván Cepeda leading at around 30-35%, followed closely by conservative Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right Paloma Valencia near 25%. The fragmented field, solidified by March 9 legislative elections that produced a divided Congress and low turnout, has entrenched a three-way race amid high undecided voters (over 30% in some surveys). Historical patterns in Colombia's proportional system favor runoffs, as no frontrunner has consolidated support despite primaries and ballot draws, driving trader consensus to an 86% implied probability of "No" outright winner.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
交易量
$0
結束日期
2026-05-31
市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2025, 1:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polls, including those from Guarumo-Ecoanalítica and Centro Nacional de Consultoría in late March 2026, show no presidential candidate approaching the 50%+1 threshold needed for an outright first-round win on May 31, with leftist Iván Cepeda leading at around 30-35%, followed closely by conservative Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right Paloma Valencia near 25%. The fragmented field, solidified by March 9 legislative elections that produced a divided Congress and low turnout, has entrenched a three-way race amid high undecided voters (over 30% in some surveys). Historical patterns in Colombia's proportional system favor runoffs, as no frontrunner has consolidated support despite primaries and ballot draws, driving trader consensus to an 86% implied probability of "No" outright winner.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
交易量
$0
結束日期
2026-05-31
市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2025, 1:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"任何總統候選人會在第一輪哥倫比亞選舉中獲勝嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "哥倫比亞總統選舉中會有候選人在第一輪直接獲勝嗎？" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 14¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"任何總統候選人會在第一輪哥倫比亞選舉中獲勝嗎？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 29, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "任何總統候選人會在第一輪哥倫比亞選舉中獲勝嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "任何總統候選人會在第一輪哥倫比亞選舉中獲勝嗎？" is "哥倫比亞總統選舉中會有候選人在第一輪直接獲勝嗎？" at 14%, meaning the market assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "任何總統候選人會在第一輪哥倫比亞選舉中獲勝嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.