Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most Democratic-leaning seats in the House, with a partisan voting index exceeding D+25 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Gwen Moore secured her party’s nomination in the August 11 primary with roughly 72 percent of the vote, preserving continuity in a Milwaukee-centered district where Democratic registration and turnout advantages are structural. Republican primary candidates showed limited fundraising and visibility, leaving the general-election matchup without a credible challenger. Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Democratic, aligning with the market’s 98 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Only an unforeseen development such as incumbent withdrawal due to health or ethics issues, or an unprecedented national swing exceeding historical norms, would realistically reopen the outcome before November 3.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$33,516 交易量
$33,516 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
98%
共和黨
2%
$33,516 交易量
$33,516 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
$12,352 交易量
98%
共和黨
$21,164 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most Democratic-leaning seats in the House, with a partisan voting index exceeding D+25 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Gwen Moore secured her party’s nomination in the August 11 primary with roughly 72 percent of the vote, preserving continuity in a Milwaukee-centered district where Democratic registration and turnout advantages are structural. Republican primary candidates showed limited fundraising and visibility, leaving the general-election matchup without a credible challenger. Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Democratic, aligning with the market’s 98 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Only an unforeseen development such as incumbent withdrawal due to health or ethics issues, or an unprecedented national swing exceeding historical norms, would realistically reopen the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$33,516結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most Democratic-leaning seats in the House, with a partisan voting index exceeding D+25 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Gwen Moore secured her party’s nomination in the August 11 primary with roughly 72 percent of the vote, preserving continuity in a Milwaukee-centered district where Democratic registration and turnout advantages are structural. Republican primary candidates showed limited fundraising and visibility, leaving the general-election matchup without a credible challenger. Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Democratic, aligning with the market’s 98 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Only an unforeseen development such as incumbent withdrawal due to health or ethics issues, or an unprecedented national swing exceeding historical norms, would realistically reopen the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$33,516結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most Democratic-leaning seats in the House, with a partisan voting index exceeding D+25 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Gwen Moore secured her party’s nomination in the August 11 primary with roughly 72 percent of the vote, preserving continuity in a Milwaukee-centered district where Democratic registration and turnout advantages are structural. Republican primary candidates showed limited fundraising and visibility, leaving the general-election matchup without a credible challenger. Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Democratic, aligning with the market’s 98 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Only an unforeseen development such as incumbent withdrawal due to health or ethics issues, or an unprecedented national swing exceeding historical norms, would realistically reopen the outcome before November 3.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions