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政治·主要

誰將從加州州長初選中晉升？

Market icon
政治·主要

誰將從加州州長初選中晉升？

$427,711 交易量

2026-06-02
Polymarket

$427,711 交易量

Polymarket

埃里克·斯沃威爾

$11,069 交易量

70%

史蒂夫·希爾頓

$31,539 交易量

61%

查德·比安科

$12,052 交易量

35%

湯姆·斯泰爾

$17,911 交易量

30%

凱蒂·波特

$4,715 交易量

26%

Elaine Culotti

$0 交易量

19%

Matt Mahan

$10,962 交易量

16%

哈維爾·貝塞拉

$3,859 交易量

7%

貝蒂·易

$2,687 交易量

6%

Tony Thurmond

$1,035 交易量

5%

伊桑·阿加瓦爾

$2,470 交易量

5%

Sharifah Hardie

$0 交易量

4%

Ché Ahn

$14,844 交易量

4%

吉米·帕克

$0 交易量

3%

安東尼奧·維亞拉戈薩

$11,477 交易量

3%

Dylan Colbert

$13,310 交易量

3%

David Thelen

$750 交易量

3%

丹尼爾·梅庫里

$8,319 交易量

3%

尼姬·米娜

$0 交易量

3%

Derek Grasty

$1,039 交易量

3%

Ryan Tillman

$1,313 交易量

3%

Leo Zacky

$0 交易量

2%

大衛·瑟帕

$3,833 交易量

2%

Javen Allen

$0 交易量

10%

Leonard Jackson

$0 交易量

2%

拉吉·拉布

$0 交易量

2%

Kyle Langford

$10,554 交易量

2%

卡羅琳娜·布勒

$6,191 交易量

2%

尼古拉斯·湯普森

$6,631 交易量

2%

雷霆·帕利

$49,022 交易量

2%

Butch Ware

$7,512 交易量

2%

佐爾坦·伊斯特萬

$11,336 交易量

2%

拉姆齊·羅賓遜

$0 交易量

1%

伊恩·卡爾德龍

$112,058 交易量

1%

布蘭登·瓊斯

$33,473 交易量

1%

蘇菲亞·布林克

$37,751 交易量

1%

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.In California's nonpartisan top-two primary for governor on June 2, recent March polls from Emerson College and EVITARUS show Republicans Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco leading or tied with Democrats Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, and Tom Steyer, amid 24-27% undecided voters and a fragmented Democratic field lacking a dominant frontrunner. This split raises the risk of two Republicans advancing to November—a rarity in deep-blue California—driving trader caution on Democratic consolidation. Affordability and cost-of-living concerns dominate per PPIC surveys, amplified by recent Fresno State forums where candidates debated rural issues and regulations. Upcoming debates and voter outreach could tip battleground support before early voting begins.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
交易量
$427,711
結束日期
2026-06-02
市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.In California's nonpartisan top-two primary for governor on June 2, recent March polls from Emerson College and EVITARUS show Republicans Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco leading or tied with Democrats Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, and Tom Steyer, amid 24-27% undecided voters and a fragmented Democratic field lacking a dominant frontrunner. This split raises the risk of two Republicans advancing to November—a rarity in deep-blue California—driving trader caution on Democratic consolidation. Affordability and cost-of-living concerns dominate per PPIC surveys, amplified by recent Fresno State forums where candidates debated rural issues and regulations. Upcoming debates and voter outreach could tip battleground support before early voting begins.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
交易量
$427,711
結束日期
2026-06-02
市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"誰將從加州州長初選中晉升？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "埃里克·斯沃威爾" at 70%, followed by "史蒂夫·希爾頓" at 61%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "誰將從加州州長初選中晉升？" has generated $427.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "誰將從加州州長初選中晉升？," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "誰將從加州州長初選中晉升？" is "埃里克·斯沃威爾" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "史蒂夫·希爾頓" at 61%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "誰將從加州州長初選中晉升？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.