Trump transition officials have interviewed former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as a leading contender for Federal Reserve Chair, amid speculation following Jerome Powell's term ending in May 2026, but no formal nomination has been announced, anchoring trader consensus toward delays or alternative outcomes. Recent reports highlight Warsh's economic credentials and past Trump advisory role, yet competing candidates like Scott Bessent (nominated for Treasury Secretary) and Kevin Hassett draw attention, with Senate GOP control easing but not assuring confirmation. Key upcoming catalysts include potential nominations before January 20 inauguration and early Senate hearings, as markets price in prolonged uncertainty over Fed leadership transition.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$82,365 交易量
Oct 31, 2026
美國 x 伊朗停火
30%
聯準會降息
7%
美國確認外星人存在
6%
$82,365 交易量
美國 x 伊朗停火
$32,903 交易量
30%
聯準會降息
$22,305 交易量
7%
美國確認外星人存在
$27,157 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached or a consensus of credible reporting that Warsh has been confirmed will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
Both rate cuts resulting from scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings and emergency rate cuts will qualify as decreasing the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate and the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
An announcement of a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader will qualify regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached or a consensus of credible reporting that Warsh has been confirmed will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached or a consensus of credible reporting that Warsh has been confirmed will suffice.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached or a consensus of credible reporting that Warsh has been confirmed will suffice.
市場開放時間： Mar 4, 2026, 12:27 PM ET
交易量
$82,365結束日期
Oct 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 4, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached or a consensus of credible reporting that Warsh has been confirmed will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
Both rate cuts resulting from scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings and emergency rate cuts will qualify as decreasing the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate and the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
An announcement of a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader will qualify regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$82,365結束日期
Oct 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 4, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump transition officials have interviewed former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as a leading contender for Federal Reserve Chair, amid speculation following Jerome Powell's term ending in May 2026, but no formal nomination has been announced, anchoring trader consensus toward delays or alternative outcomes. Recent reports highlight Warsh's economic credentials and past Trump advisory role, yet competing candidates like Scott Bessent (nominated for Treasury Secretary) and Kevin Hassett draw attention, with Senate GOP control easing but not assuring confirmation. Key upcoming catalysts include potential nominations before January 20 inauguration and early Senate hearings, as markets price in prolonged uncertainty over Fed leadership transition.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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