Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain confidence that former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent will not face criminal charges by April 30, driven by the absence of any indictment or grand jury developments in the five weeks since the FBI probe into alleged classified leaks surfaced publicly after his March 17 resignation over the Iran war. The investigation, which predated his exit, has yielded no verified actions from the Justice Department amid Kent's claims it's a distraction from policy critiques, with low trading volume signaling minimal perceived risk as the deadline nears. Realistic upsets could involve a sudden DOJ escalation tied to political pressures around Trump administration internal conflicts, though historical leak case timelines make rushed charges improbable.