Amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes that have targeted over 10,000 Iranian sites since late February 2026, trader consensus reflects dim prospects for a US-Iran ceasefire, driven by Tehran's rejection of a US 15-point proposal mediated via Pakistan as "one-sided." Iran has retaliated with missile strikes injuring over 300 US troops at a Saudi base and attacks on Israel and Gulf states, while denying direct negotiations. Secretary of State Rubio anticipates resolution in weeks, not months, but escalation persists without breakthroughs. Key watchpoints include potential counterproposals through Egypt or Pakistan, proxy actions by Houthis and Hezbollah, and Strait of Hormuz tensions that could sway diplomatic off-ramps or prolong conflict.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$56,537,830 交易量
Apr 15, 2026
3月31日
3%
4月7日
12%
4月15日
23%
4月30日
39%
5月31日
54%
6月30日
62%
12月31日
76%
$56,537,830 交易量
3月31日
$35,673,926 交易量
3%
4月7日
$893,905 交易量
12%
4月15日
$5,479,986 交易量
23%
4月30日
$6,151,920 交易量
39%
5月31日
$2,164,887 交易量
54%
6月30日
$2,218,632 交易量
62%
12月31日
$460,837 交易量
76%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes that have targeted over 10,000 Iranian sites since late February 2026, trader consensus reflects dim prospects for a US-Iran ceasefire, driven by Tehran's rejection of a US 15-point proposal mediated via Pakistan as "one-sided." Iran has retaliated with missile strikes injuring over 300 US troops at a Saudi base and attacks on Israel and Gulf states, while denying direct negotiations. Secretary of State Rubio anticipates resolution in weeks, not months, but escalation persists without breakthroughs. Key watchpoints include potential counterproposals through Egypt or Pakistan, proxy actions by Houthis and Hezbollah, and Strait of Hormuz tensions that could sway diplomatic off-ramps or prolong conflict.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
市場開放時間： Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ET
交易量
$56,537,830市場開放時間
Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes that have targeted over 10,000 Iranian sites since late February 2026, trader consensus reflects dim prospects for a US-Iran ceasefire, driven by Tehran's rejection of a US 15-point proposal mediated via Pakistan as "one-sided." Iran has retaliated with missile strikes injuring over 300 US troops at a Saudi base and attacks on Israel and Gulf states, while denying direct negotiations. Secretary of State Rubio anticipates resolution in weeks, not months, but escalation persists without breakthroughs. Key watchpoints include potential counterproposals through Egypt or Pakistan, proxy actions by Houthis and Hezbollah, and Strait of Hormuz tensions that could sway diplomatic off-ramps or prolong conflict.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$56,537,830市場開放時間
Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes that have targeted over 10,000 Iranian sites since late February 2026, trader consensus reflects dim prospects for a US-Iran ceasefire, driven by Tehran's rejection of a US 15-point proposal mediated via Pakistan as "one-sided." Iran has retaliated with missile strikes injuring over 300 US troops at a Saudi base and attacks on Israel and Gulf states, while denying direct negotiations. Secretary of State Rubio anticipates resolution in weeks, not months, but escalation persists without breakthroughs. Key watchpoints include potential counterproposals through Egypt or Pakistan, proxy actions by Houthis and Hezbollah, and Strait of Hormuz tensions that could sway diplomatic off-ramps or prolong conflict.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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