Trader consensus prices "No" at 83.5% for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, reflecting skepticism over feasible timelines amid stalled diplomacy and operational risks. The US military recently briefed President Trump on a special forces plan to seize Iran's estimated 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but experts highlight the mission's complexity, including fortified underground sites like Isfahan where satellite imagery shows Iran likely relocated its stockpile before June 2025 US-Israeli strikes. IAEA inspectors lack access to verify the material post-strikes, and recent US-Iran talks collapsed over enrichment caps and verification disputes. With eight weeks remaining and no announced actions, traders see significant barriers despite escalation signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$216,280 交易量
$216,280 交易量
2026-05-31
$216,280 交易量
$216,280 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 83.5% for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, reflecting skepticism over feasible timelines amid stalled diplomacy and operational risks. The US military recently briefed President Trump on a special forces plan to seize Iran's estimated 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but experts highlight the mission's complexity, including fortified underground sites like Isfahan where satellite imagery shows Iran likely relocated its stockpile before June 2025 US-Israeli strikes. IAEA inspectors lack access to verify the material post-strikes, and recent US-Iran talks collapsed over enrichment caps and verification disputes. With eight weeks remaining and no announced actions, traders see significant barriers despite escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$216,280結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 83.5% for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, reflecting skepticism over feasible timelines amid stalled diplomacy and operational risks. The US military recently briefed President Trump on a special forces plan to seize Iran's estimated 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but experts highlight the mission's complexity, including fortified underground sites like Isfahan where satellite imagery shows Iran likely relocated its stockpile before June 2025 US-Israeli strikes. IAEA inspectors lack access to verify the material post-strikes, and recent US-Iran talks collapsed over enrichment caps and verification disputes. With eight weeks remaining and no announced actions, traders see significant barriers despite escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$216,280結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 83.5% for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, reflecting skepticism over feasible timelines amid stalled diplomacy and operational risks. The US military recently briefed President Trump on a special forces plan to seize Iran's estimated 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but experts highlight the mission's complexity, including fortified underground sites like Isfahan where satellite imagery shows Iran likely relocated its stockpile before June 2025 US-Israeli strikes. IAEA inspectors lack access to verify the material post-strikes, and recent US-Iran talks collapsed over enrichment caps and verification disputes. With eight weeks remaining and no announced actions, traders see significant barriers despite escalation signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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