Polymarket's trader consensus shows a razor-thin race for Q1 2026 US real GDP growth, with 3.0–3.5% implied at 19.5% narrowly leading 2.5–3.0% (18.3%) and 1.0–1.5% (17.6%) close behind, as bettors discount the Atlanta Fed GDPNow's plunge to 1.6% on April 2 amid a sharply wider March trade deficit that hammered net exports. Resilient consumer spending—up 0.4% in January—and March ISM Manufacturing PMI expansion to 52.7 offset February's anomalous -92,000 nonfarm payroll drop, while NY Fed nowcast steadies at 2.1%. Key swing factors include upcoming March nonfarm payrolls, ISM Services, and retail sales, with historical GDPNow upward revisions and services sector strength (February PMI 56.1) favoring higher bins ahead of BEA's late-April advance estimate.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於3.0–3.5% 20%
2.5–3.0% 18.3%
1.0–1.5% 17.5%
2.0–2.5% 15.2%
$232,942 交易量
$232,942 交易量
2026-04-30
少於1.0%
7%
1.0–1.5%
18%
1.5–2.0%
14%
2.0–2.5%
15%
2.5–3.0%
18%
3.0–3.5%
20%
≥3.5％
12%
3.0–3.5% 20%
2.5–3.0% 18.3%
1.0–1.5% 17.5%
2.0–2.5% 15.2%
$232,942 交易量
$232,942 交易量
2026-04-30
少於1.0%
$22,024 交易量
7%
1.0–1.5%
$5,126 交易量
18%
1.5–2.0%
$15,453 交易量
14%
2.0–2.5%
$32,387 交易量
15%
2.5–3.0%
$13,941 交易量
18%
3.0–3.5%
$74,574 交易量
20%
≥3.5％
$69,438 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Polymarket's trader consensus shows a razor-thin race for Q1 2026 US real GDP growth, with 3.0–3.5% implied at 19.5% narrowly leading 2.5–3.0% (18.3%) and 1.0–1.5% (17.6%) close behind, as bettors discount the Atlanta Fed GDPNow's plunge to 1.6% on April 2 amid a sharply wider March trade deficit that hammered net exports. Resilient consumer spending—up 0.4% in January—and March ISM Manufacturing PMI expansion to 52.7 offset February's anomalous -92,000 nonfarm payroll drop, while NY Fed nowcast steadies at 2.1%. Key swing factors include upcoming March nonfarm payrolls, ISM Services, and retail sales, with historical GDPNow upward revisions and services sector strength (February PMI 56.1) favoring higher bins ahead of BEA's late-April advance estimate.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
市場開放時間： Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
交易量
$232,942結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Polymarket's trader consensus shows a razor-thin race for Q1 2026 US real GDP growth, with 3.0–3.5% implied at 19.5% narrowly leading 2.5–3.0% (18.3%) and 1.0–1.5% (17.6%) close behind, as bettors discount the Atlanta Fed GDPNow's plunge to 1.6% on April 2 amid a sharply wider March trade deficit that hammered net exports. Resilient consumer spending—up 0.4% in January—and March ISM Manufacturing PMI expansion to 52.7 offset February's anomalous -92,000 nonfarm payroll drop, while NY Fed nowcast steadies at 2.1%. Key swing factors include upcoming March nonfarm payrolls, ISM Services, and retail sales, with historical GDPNow upward revisions and services sector strength (February PMI 56.1) favoring higher bins ahead of BEA's late-April advance estimate.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
交易量
$232,942結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket's trader consensus shows a razor-thin race for Q1 2026 US real GDP growth, with 3.0–3.5% implied at 19.5% narrowly leading 2.5–3.0% (18.3%) and 1.0–1.5% (17.6%) close behind, as bettors discount the Atlanta Fed GDPNow's plunge to 1.6% on April 2 amid a sharply wider March trade deficit that hammered net exports. Resilient consumer spending—up 0.4% in January—and March ISM Manufacturing PMI expansion to 52.7 offset February's anomalous -92,000 nonfarm payroll drop, while NY Fed nowcast steadies at 2.1%. Key swing factors include upcoming March nonfarm payrolls, ISM Services, and retail sales, with historical GDPNow upward revisions and services sector strength (February PMI 56.1) favoring higher bins ahead of BEA's late-April advance estimate.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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