Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for U.S. forces entering Gaza before 2027, driven by repeated Pentagon and CENTCOM denials of any ground troop deployment into the territory, despite the Trump administration's Gaza peace plan advancing to phase two focused on demilitarization and technocratic governance. February 2026 reports revealed U.S. plans for a 350-acre base in southern Gaza to house 5,000 international stabilization force (ISF) troops—primarily non-U.S. personnel like Indonesians—working alongside Israel, Egypt, and Palestinian police, but explicitly excluding American combat operations on Gazan soil. March Israeli preparations for a May ISF arrival underscore multinational composition amid Hamas threats, reinforcing skepticism of direct U.S. military involvement before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$37,868 交易量
$37,868 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$37,868 交易量
$37,868 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for U.S. forces entering Gaza before 2027, driven by repeated Pentagon and CENTCOM denials of any ground troop deployment into the territory, despite the Trump administration's Gaza peace plan advancing to phase two focused on demilitarization and technocratic governance. February 2026 reports revealed U.S. plans for a 350-acre base in southern Gaza to house 5,000 international stabilization force (ISF) troops—primarily non-U.S. personnel like Indonesians—working alongside Israel, Egypt, and Palestinian police, but explicitly excluding American combat operations on Gazan soil. March Israeli preparations for a May ISF arrival underscore multinational composition amid Hamas threats, reinforcing skepticism of direct U.S. military involvement before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:07 PM ET
交易量
$37,868結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for U.S. forces entering Gaza before 2027, driven by repeated Pentagon and CENTCOM denials of any ground troop deployment into the territory, despite the Trump administration's Gaza peace plan advancing to phase two focused on demilitarization and technocratic governance. February 2026 reports revealed U.S. plans for a 350-acre base in southern Gaza to house 5,000 international stabilization force (ISF) troops—primarily non-U.S. personnel like Indonesians—working alongside Israel, Egypt, and Palestinian police, but explicitly excluding American combat operations on Gazan soil. March Israeli preparations for a May ISF arrival underscore multinational composition amid Hamas threats, reinforcing skepticism of direct U.S. military involvement before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$37,868結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for U.S. forces entering Gaza before 2027, driven by repeated Pentagon and CENTCOM denials of any ground troop deployment into the territory, despite the Trump administration's Gaza peace plan advancing to phase two focused on demilitarization and technocratic governance. February 2026 reports revealed U.S. plans for a 350-acre base in southern Gaza to house 5,000 international stabilization force (ISF) troops—primarily non-U.S. personnel like Indonesians—working alongside Israel, Egypt, and Palestinian police, but explicitly excluding American combat operations on Gazan soil. March Israeli preparations for a May ISF arrival underscore multinational composition amid Hamas threats, reinforcing skepticism of direct U.S. military involvement before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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