Trader consensus on Polymarket implies 7-10 countries as most likely for US military actions in 2026, with 7 leading at 31%, reflecting a confirmed tally of five distinct nations—Iran, Venezuela, Syria, Somalia, and Yemen—through airstrikes, raids, and operations like Epic Fury and Hawkeye Strike by early April. Recent CENTCOM footage of strikes targeting Iranian drones, tanks, and missile sites, alongside Pentagon preparations for limited ground operations amid Iranian retaliatory barrages on Gulf allies, has sustained elevated expectations for proxy escalations in Iraq or Lebanon. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over Iran war de-escalation versus expansion, routine counterterrorism continuity, and low-probability new theaters; a Hezbollah ceasefire or major diplomatic breakthrough could cap at 6-7, while fresh invasions or proxy activations might push toward 10+.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於7 31.0%
8 23.5%
9 16.2%
10 12.0%
$722,027 交易量
$722,027 交易量
2026-12-31
6
12%
7
31%
8
24%
9
16%
10
12%
11
4%
12
2%
13
2%
14
1%
15+
4%
7 31.0%
8 23.5%
9 16.2%
10 12.0%
$722,027 交易量
$722,027 交易量
2026-12-31
6
$417,366 交易量
12%
7
$3,938 交易量
31%
8
$5,755 交易量
24%
9
$8,921 交易量
16%
10
$10,276 交易量
12%
11
$8,061 交易量
4%
12
$10,045 交易量
2%
13
$7,250 交易量
2%
14
$41,441 交易量
1%
15+
$49,132 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies 7-10 countries as most likely for US military actions in 2026, with 7 leading at 31%, reflecting a confirmed tally of five distinct nations—Iran, Venezuela, Syria, Somalia, and Yemen—through airstrikes, raids, and operations like Epic Fury and Hawkeye Strike by early April. Recent CENTCOM footage of strikes targeting Iranian drones, tanks, and missile sites, alongside Pentagon preparations for limited ground operations amid Iranian retaliatory barrages on Gulf allies, has sustained elevated expectations for proxy escalations in Iraq or Lebanon. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over Iran war de-escalation versus expansion, routine counterterrorism continuity, and low-probability new theaters; a Hezbollah ceasefire or major diplomatic breakthrough could cap at 6-7, while fresh invasions or proxy activations might push toward 10+.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
交易量
$722,027結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies 7-10 countries as most likely for US military actions in 2026, with 7 leading at 31%, reflecting a confirmed tally of five distinct nations—Iran, Venezuela, Syria, Somalia, and Yemen—through airstrikes, raids, and operations like Epic Fury and Hawkeye Strike by early April. Recent CENTCOM footage of strikes targeting Iranian drones, tanks, and missile sites, alongside Pentagon preparations for limited ground operations amid Iranian retaliatory barrages on Gulf allies, has sustained elevated expectations for proxy escalations in Iraq or Lebanon. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over Iran war de-escalation versus expansion, routine counterterrorism continuity, and low-probability new theaters; a Hezbollah ceasefire or major diplomatic breakthrough could cap at 6-7, while fresh invasions or proxy activations might push toward 10+.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$722,027結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies 7-10 countries as most likely for US military actions in 2026, with 7 leading at 31%, reflecting a confirmed tally of five distinct nations—Iran, Venezuela, Syria, Somalia, and Yemen—through airstrikes, raids, and operations like Epic Fury and Hawkeye Strike by early April. Recent CENTCOM footage of strikes targeting Iranian drones, tanks, and missile sites, alongside Pentagon preparations for limited ground operations amid Iranian retaliatory barrages on Gulf allies, has sustained elevated expectations for proxy escalations in Iraq or Lebanon. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over Iran war de-escalation versus expansion, routine counterterrorism continuity, and low-probability new theaters; a Hezbollah ceasefire or major diplomatic breakthrough could cap at 6-7, while fresh invasions or proxy activations might push toward 10+.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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