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Nord Stream管道是否在2027年之前開啓?

Market icon

Nord Stream管道是否在2027年之前開啓?

12月 31

12月 31

9% 機率
Polymarket
最新
9% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus heavily favors no restart of the Nord Stream pipelines before 2027, driven by persistent EU sanctions including a January 2026 transaction ban on Nord Stream infrastructure, which prohibits repairs or operations without lifting restrictions—a step Germany and allies have not taken amid ongoing Ukraine tensions. The pipelines remain damaged from 2022 sabotage, with investigations closed by Denmark and Sweden but no repair contracts announced by operator Nord Stream AG or Gazprom. Recent speculation, including Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's March 26 claim of U.S. takeover interest and reports of Trump-Putin talks for American-backed revival, has not yielded diplomatic breakthroughs, concrete timelines, or approvals from Baltic states, reinforcing doubts over feasibility within the resolution window despite Europe's LNG diversification reducing reliance on Russian pipeline gas.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


交易量
$5,591
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus heavily favors no restart of the Nord Stream pipelines before 2027, driven by persistent EU sanctions including a January 2026 transaction ban on Nord Stream infrastructure, which prohibits repairs or operations without lifting restrictions—a step Germany and allies have not taken amid ongoing Ukraine tensions. The pipelines remain damaged from 2022 sabotage, with investigations closed by Denmark and Sweden but no repair contracts announced by operator Nord Stream AG or Gazprom. Recent speculation, including Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's March 26 claim of U.S. takeover interest and reports of Trump-Putin talks for American-backed revival, has not yielded diplomatic breakthroughs, concrete timelines, or approvals from Baltic states, reinforcing doubts over feasibility within the resolution window despite Europe's LNG diversification reducing reliance on Russian pipeline gas.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


交易量
$5,591
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Nord Stream管道是否在2027年之前開啓?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 9% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 9¢, the market collectively assigns a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Nord Stream管道是否在2027年之前開啓?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 5, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Nord Stream管道是否在2027年之前開啓?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Nord Stream管道是否在2027年之前開啓?" is 9% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Nord Stream管道是否在2027年之前開啓?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.