Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability for "No" on a US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, anchored by the lack of verifiable proliferation steps from key candidates like South Korea and Japan despite rhetorical debates amid North Korean missile advances and China tensions. A pivotal recent development—US tactical nuclear weapons visiting South Korea for the first time since 1991—bolsters extended deterrence, easing ally incentives for independent programs. NPT obligations, technical hurdles, domestic opposition (e.g., Saudi Crown Prince's statements), and the compressed timeline to year-end further solidify skepticism, even as Iran conflict risks and alliance strains fuel speculation without advancing concrete actions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability for "No" on a US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, anchored by the lack of verifiable proliferation steps from key candidates like South Korea and Japan despite rhetorical debates amid North Korean missile advances and China tensions. A pivotal recent development—US tactical nuclear weapons visiting South Korea for the first time since 1991—bolsters extended deterrence, easing ally incentives for independent programs. NPT obligations, technical hurdles, domestic opposition (e.g., Saudi Crown Prince's statements), and the compressed timeline to year-end further solidify skepticism, even as Iran conflict risks and alliance strains fuel speculation without advancing concrete actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
交易量
$4,995結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability for "No" on a US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, anchored by the lack of verifiable proliferation steps from key candidates like South Korea and Japan despite rhetorical debates amid North Korean missile advances and China tensions. A pivotal recent development—US tactical nuclear weapons visiting South Korea for the first time since 1991—bolsters extended deterrence, easing ally incentives for independent programs. NPT obligations, technical hurdles, domestic opposition (e.g., Saudi Crown Prince's statements), and the compressed timeline to year-end further solidify skepticism, even as Iran conflict risks and alliance strains fuel speculation without advancing concrete actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$4,995結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability for "No" on a US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, anchored by the lack of verifiable proliferation steps from key candidates like South Korea and Japan despite rhetorical debates amid North Korean missile advances and China tensions. A pivotal recent development—US tactical nuclear weapons visiting South Korea for the first time since 1991—bolsters extended deterrence, easing ally incentives for independent programs. NPT obligations, technical hurdles, domestic opposition (e.g., Saudi Crown Prince's statements), and the compressed timeline to year-end further solidify skepticism, even as Iran conflict risks and alliance strains fuel speculation without advancing concrete actions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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