Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Liberal candidate Danielle Martin at 99.4% implied probability in the University—Rosedale federal by-election, reflecting the riding's status as a longstanding Liberal stronghold in central Toronto, where Chrystia Freeland secured a decisive victory in the 2025 general election before resigning. Martin's profile as a local family physician and health leader, bolstered by Prime Minister Mark Carney's recent endorsement and active campaigning by Liberal ministers during advance polls opened April 3, has solidified her commanding position amid fragmented opposition from Conservative Don Hodgson, NDP's Serena Purdy, and minor candidates. With election day April 13, low-turnout by-elections typically favor the incumbent party; realistic challenges would require a late scandal, unexpected opposition surge on national economic issues, or unusually high voter mobilization against the Liberals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Danielle Martin 99.4%
Don Hodgson <1%
Imran Khan <1%
Samuel Baxter <1%
$51,570 交易量
$51,570 交易量
Danielle Martin
99%
Don Hodgson
1%
Imran Khan
<1%
Samuel Baxter
<1%
Andy D’Andrea
<1%
Leslie Bory
<1%
Bill Whatcott
<1%
Serena Purdy
<1%
Andrew Massey
<1%
Raiden DeDominicis
<1%
Danielle Martin 99.4%
Don Hodgson <1%
Imran Khan <1%
Samuel Baxter <1%
$51,570 交易量
$51,570 交易量
Danielle Martin
99%
Don Hodgson
1%
Imran Khan
<1%
Samuel Baxter
<1%
Andy D’Andrea
<1%
Leslie Bory
<1%
Bill Whatcott
<1%
Serena Purdy
<1%
Andrew Massey
<1%
Raiden DeDominicis
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
市場開放時間： Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Liberal candidate Danielle Martin at 99.4% implied probability in the University—Rosedale federal by-election, reflecting the riding's status as a longstanding Liberal stronghold in central Toronto, where Chrystia Freeland secured a decisive victory in the 2025 general election before resigning. Martin's profile as a local family physician and health leader, bolstered by Prime Minister Mark Carney's recent endorsement and active campaigning by Liberal ministers during advance polls opened April 3, has solidified her commanding position amid fragmented opposition from Conservative Don Hodgson, NDP's Serena Purdy, and minor candidates. With election day April 13, low-turnout by-elections typically favor the incumbent party; realistic challenges would require a late scandal, unexpected opposition surge on national economic issues, or unusually high voter mobilization against the Liberals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions