Polymarket traders are pricing a 44% implied probability for U.K. annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026, closely trailed by 34.5% for the 4.0–4.4% band, reflecting competitive sentiment amid sticky price pressures. February 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0% year-over-year—unchanged from January and above Bank of England (BoE) expectations—driven by services inflation easing only marginally to 4.3% and volatility in oil and gas prices from escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. This has tempered rate cut bets, with the BoE's March Monetary Policy Committee holding the base rate steady. Official forecasts like the OBR's 2.3% 2026 average contrast trader pessimism on persistent energy shocks and wage dynamics; March CPI data due April 22 could sway positioning ahead of May MPC.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於3.5–3.9% 17%
低於1.0% 7%
1.0–1.4% 5.8%
1.5–1.9% 5%
低於1.0%
7%
1.0–1.4%
6%
1.5–1.9%
21%
2.0–2.4%
24%
2.5–2.9%
21%
3.5–3.9%
11%
4.0-4.4%
35%
4.5%以上
45%
3.5–3.9% 17%
低於1.0% 7%
1.0–1.4% 5.8%
1.5–1.9% 5%
低於1.0%
7%
1.0–1.4%
6%
1.5–1.9%
21%
2.0–2.4%
24%
2.5–2.9%
21%
3.5–3.9%
11%
4.0-4.4%
35%
4.5%以上
45%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
市場開放時間: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders are pricing a 44% implied probability for U.K. annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026, closely trailed by 34.5% for the 4.0–4.4% band, reflecting competitive sentiment amid sticky price pressures. February 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0% year-over-year—unchanged from January and above Bank of England (BoE) expectations—driven by services inflation easing only marginally to 4.3% and volatility in oil and gas prices from escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. This has tempered rate cut bets, with the BoE's March Monetary Policy Committee holding the base rate steady. Official forecasts like the OBR's 2.3% 2026 average contrast trader pessimism on persistent energy shocks and wage dynamics; March CPI data due April 22 could sway positioning ahead of May MPC.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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