Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Juntos por el Perú (JP) at 62% implied probability to win the most seats in Peru's inaugural Senate election on April 12, diverging from recent national polls like Ipsos (March 21-22) showing Fuerza Popular (FP) leading at 8% over Renovación Popular (RP) at 6%, and IEP (mid-March) tying RP/FP with JP third at 4%. High undecided rates (20-25%) and vote fragmentation across dozens of parties fuel volatility, with JP gaining traction in rural areas (10%+) and the south per simulacros, advantaging its list in the 27 regional constituencies electing 30 of 60 senators via proportional representation. No major shifts in the past 48 hours, but final campaigning could tip the multi-district balance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於JP 56.8%
RP 16%
進步聯盟（APP） 14%
人民力量 11%
$11,115 交易量
$11,115 交易量
Apr 12, 2026
JP
62%
RP
16%
進步聯盟（APP）
14%
人民力量
12%
AvP
3%
SP
3%
PL
8%
PP
1%
AP
<1%
JP 56.8%
RP 16%
進步聯盟（APP） 14%
人民力量 11%
$11,115 交易量
$11,115 交易量
Apr 12, 2026
JP
$4,904 交易量
62%
RP
$911 交易量
16%
進步聯盟（APP）
$1,080 交易量
14%
人民力量
$899 交易量
12%
AvP
$1,043 交易量
3%
SP
$515 交易量
3%
PL
$510 交易量
8%
PP
$728 交易量
1%
AP
$526 交易量
<1%
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Senate election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Juntos por el Perú (JP) at 62% implied probability to win the most seats in Peru's inaugural Senate election on April 12, diverging from recent national polls like Ipsos (March 21-22) showing Fuerza Popular (FP) leading at 8% over Renovación Popular (RP) at 6%, and IEP (mid-March) tying RP/FP with JP third at 4%. High undecided rates (20-25%) and vote fragmentation across dozens of parties fuel volatility, with JP gaining traction in rural areas (10%+) and the south per simulacros, advantaging its list in the 27 regional constituencies electing 30 of 60 senators via proportional representation. No major shifts in the past 48 hours, but final campaigning could tip the multi-district balance.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Senate election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Senate election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET
交易量
$11,115結束日期
Apr 12, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Senate election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Juntos por el Perú (JP) at 62% implied probability to win the most seats in Peru's inaugural Senate election on April 12, diverging from recent national polls like Ipsos (March 21-22) showing Fuerza Popular (FP) leading at 8% over Renovación Popular (RP) at 6%, and IEP (mid-March) tying RP/FP with JP third at 4%. High undecided rates (20-25%) and vote fragmentation across dozens of parties fuel volatility, with JP gaining traction in rural areas (10%+) and the south per simulacros, advantaging its list in the 27 regional constituencies electing 30 of 60 senators via proportional representation. No major shifts in the past 48 hours, but final campaigning could tip the multi-district balance.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Senate election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Senate election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
交易量
$11,115結束日期
Apr 12, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Juntos por el Perú (JP) at 62% implied probability to win the most seats in Peru's inaugural Senate election on April 12, diverging from recent national polls like Ipsos (March 21-22) showing Fuerza Popular (FP) leading at 8% over Renovación Popular (RP) at 6%, and IEP (mid-March) tying RP/FP with JP third at 4%. High undecided rates (20-25%) and vote fragmentation across dozens of parties fuel volatility, with JP gaining traction in rural areas (10%+) and the south per simulacros, advantaging its list in the 27 regional constituencies electing 30 of 60 senators via proportional representation. No major shifts in the past 48 hours, but final campaigning could tip the multi-district balance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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