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政治·主要

紐約-15民主黨初選獲勝者

Market icon
政治·主要

紐約-15民主黨初選獲勝者

Ritchie Torres 85%

Michael Blake 14%

達勞妮·尼莫林 2.3%

阿曼達·塞普蒂莫 <1%

Polymarket

$22,039 交易量

Ritchie Torres 85%

Michael Blake 14%

達勞妮·尼莫林 2.3%

阿曼達·塞普蒂莫 <1%

Polymarket

$22,039 交易量

Ritchie Torres

$2,919 交易量

85%

Michael Blake

$1,883 交易量

14%

達勞妮·尼莫林

$10,870 交易量

2%

阿曼達·塞普蒂莫

$6,367 交易量

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres commands 84.5% trader consensus for the NY-15 Democratic primary on June 23, reflecting his incumbency advantage, dominant fundraising exceeding $15 million, and past primary victories in the safe Bronx district. Former Assemblyman Michael Blake trails at 13.5%, positioning as the leading challenger by criticizing Torres' pro-Israel stance and AIPAC donations amid progressive discontent. Public defender Dalourny Nemorin garners 2.3% with attacks on Torres' donor focus over local issues like affordability, while Assemblymember Amanda Septimo lingers at 0.5% following her January health-related campaign suspension. Absent public polls, odds hinge on Torres' resource edge and challengers' ballot-qualified but underfunded efforts.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$22,039
結束日期
2026-06-23
市場開放時間
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres commands 84.5% trader consensus for the NY-15 Democratic primary on June 23, reflecting his incumbency advantage, dominant fundraising exceeding $15 million, and past primary victories in the safe Bronx district. Former Assemblyman Michael Blake trails at 13.5%, positioning as the leading challenger by criticizing Torres' pro-Israel stance and AIPAC donations amid progressive discontent. Public defender Dalourny Nemorin garners 2.3% with attacks on Torres' donor focus over local issues like affordability, while Assemblymember Amanda Septimo lingers at 0.5% following her January health-related campaign suspension. Absent public polls, odds hinge on Torres' resource edge and challengers' ballot-qualified but underfunded efforts.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$22,039
結束日期
2026-06-23
市場開放時間
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"紐約-15民主黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ritchie Torres" at 85%, followed by "Michael Blake" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "紐約-15民主黨初選獲勝者" has generated $22K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "紐約-15民主黨初選獲勝者," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "紐約-15民主黨初選獲勝者" is "Ritchie Torres" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michael Blake" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "紐約-15民主黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.