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政治·主要

紐約-10民主黨初選獲勝者

Market icon
政治·主要

紐約-10民主黨初選獲勝者

布拉德·蘭德 83%

Dan Goldman 16%

Cameron Kasky 1.9%

Alexa Avilés 1.7%

Polymarket
最新

布拉德·蘭德 83%

Dan Goldman 16%

Cameron Kasky 1.9%

Alexa Avilés 1.7%

Polymarket
最新

布拉德·蘭德

$1,946 交易量

83%

Dan Goldman

$1,140 交易量

16%

Cameron Kasky

$619 交易量

2%

Alexa Avilés

$834 交易量

2%

牛毓琳

$557 交易量

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander at 83% implied probability to win the NY-10 Democratic primary on June 23, propelled by the influential 32BJ SEIU union's endorsement on April 2—its first major move in the race—and a lingering September 2025 poll showing him ahead of incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman by 19 points among likely primary voters. Lander's progressive support, including OurRevolution's March backing and a cleared field from left challengers, sustains momentum despite Goldman's recent first-quarter fundraising edge reported April 4 and club endorsements like Independent Neighborhood Democrats. Goldman holds at 14%, with lower-profile candidates like Cameron Kasky, Alexa Avilés, and Yuh-Line Niou trailing amid limited visibility in this closed primary; upcoming debates or fresh polling could shift dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$5,096
結束日期
2026-06-23
市場開放時間
Nov 25, 2025, 3:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander at 83% implied probability to win the NY-10 Democratic primary on June 23, propelled by the influential 32BJ SEIU union's endorsement on April 2—its first major move in the race—and a lingering September 2025 poll showing him ahead of incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman by 19 points among likely primary voters. Lander's progressive support, including OurRevolution's March backing and a cleared field from left challengers, sustains momentum despite Goldman's recent first-quarter fundraising edge reported April 4 and club endorsements like Independent Neighborhood Democrats. Goldman holds at 14%, with lower-profile candidates like Cameron Kasky, Alexa Avilés, and Yuh-Line Niou trailing amid limited visibility in this closed primary; upcoming debates or fresh polling could shift dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$5,096
結束日期
2026-06-23
市場開放時間
Nov 25, 2025, 3:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"紐約-10民主黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "布拉德·蘭德" at 83%, followed by "Dan Goldman" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 83¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"紐約-10民主黨初選獲勝者" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 25, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "紐約-10民主黨初選獲勝者," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "紐約-10民主黨初選獲勝者" is "布拉德·蘭德" at 83%, meaning the market assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dan Goldman" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "紐約-10民主黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.