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政治·特朗普

NJ-11特別選舉獲勝者

Market icon
政治·特朗普

NJ-11特別選舉獲勝者

Analilia Mejia 97.8%

艾倫·邦德 1.5%

喬·哈撒韋 1.0%

Polymarket
最新

Analilia Mejia 97.8%

艾倫·邦德 1.5%

喬·哈撒韋 1.0%

Polymarket
最新

Analilia Mejia

$1,452 交易量

98%

艾倫·邦德

$1,005 交易量

2%

喬·哈撒韋

$0 交易量

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.Analilia Mejia holds commanding trader consensus at 97.8% to win New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special general election on April 16, driven by the district's strong Democratic lean—evident in 2024 results where Mikie Sherrill won by 15 points in this Harris +9 battleground—and her upset victory in the crowded February 5 Democratic primary over moderate Tom Malinowski. Recent internal polling shows Mejia leading Republican Joe Hathaway 53%-36%, bolstered by heavily Democratic early vote-by-mail returns from precincts like Montclair and South Orange, where Democrats exceed 90% of ballots cast. The sole debate on April 1 between Mejia and Hathaway sparked clashes over Trump and Israel but yielded no polling shifts favoring challengers. While independent Alan Bond trails at 1.5%, low special election turnout or a late scandal could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural advantages make upsets improbable.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
交易量
$2,458
結束日期
2026-04-16
市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.Analilia Mejia holds commanding trader consensus at 97.8% to win New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special general election on April 16, driven by the district's strong Democratic lean—evident in 2024 results where Mikie Sherrill won by 15 points in this Harris +9 battleground—and her upset victory in the crowded February 5 Democratic primary over moderate Tom Malinowski. Recent internal polling shows Mejia leading Republican Joe Hathaway 53%-36%, bolstered by heavily Democratic early vote-by-mail returns from precincts like Montclair and South Orange, where Democrats exceed 90% of ballots cast. The sole debate on April 1 between Mejia and Hathaway sparked clashes over Trump and Israel but yielded no polling shifts favoring challengers. While independent Alan Bond trails at 1.5%, low special election turnout or a late scandal could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural advantages make upsets improbable.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
交易量
$2,458
結束日期
2026-04-16
市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"NJ-11特別選舉獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Analilia Mejia" at 98%, followed by "艾倫·邦德" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"NJ-11特別選舉獲勝者" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "NJ-11特別選舉獲勝者," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NJ-11特別選舉獲勝者" is "Analilia Mejia" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "艾倫·邦德" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NJ-11特別選舉獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.