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政治·全球選舉

下屆巴西參議院選舉：贏得最多席位

Market icon
政治·全球選舉

下屆巴西參議院選舉：贏得最多席位

PL 73%

巴西民主運動黨（MDB） 11%

社會民主黨（PSD） 4.0%

PODEMOS 4.0%

Polymarket

$239,695 交易量

PL 73%

巴西民主運動黨（MDB） 11%

社會民主黨（PSD） 4.0%

PODEMOS 4.0%

Polymarket

$239,695 交易量

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PL

$239,695 交易量

73%

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巴西民主運動黨（MDB）

$0 交易量

11%

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社會民主黨（PSD）

$0 交易量

4%

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PODEMOS

$0 交易量

4%

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工人黨（PT）

$0 交易量

4%

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聯盟黨（UNIÃO）

$0 交易量

2%

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巴西社會黨（PSB）

$0 交易量

1%

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新黨（NOVO）

$0 交易量

1%

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進步黨（PP）

$0 交易量

7%

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PSDB

$0 交易量

6%

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共和黨（REPUBLICANOS）

$0 交易量

7%

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PDT

$0 交易量

6%

The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 74% implied probability to win the most seats among the 54 up for grabs in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, driven by recent state-level polls showing PL candidates leading in key races such as Rio de Janeiro (Cláudio Castro), Distrito Federal (Michelle Bolsonaro), and Santa Catarina (Carlos Bolsonaro), alongside a March AtlasIntel poll giving PL's Capitão Alberto Neto the edge in Amazonas. PL's ascent to the Senate's largest current bancada with 15 seats in January 2026 via defections further bolsters positioning. MDB trails at 11% with advantages in Northeast strongholds like Amazonas (Eduardo Braga) and Pará (Helder Barbalho), per Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas data. Flávio Bolsonaro's recent presidential poll surge, including a March 26 AtlasIntel runoff lead over Lula, amplifies PL momentum, though Castro's TSE ineligibility ruling and Simone Tebet's MDB-to-PSB switch introduce uncertainties ahead of candidate filings.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 74% implied probability to win the most seats among the 54 up for grabs in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, driven by recent state-level polls showing PL candidates leading in key races such as Rio de Janeiro (Cláudio Castro), Distrito Federal (Michelle Bolsonaro), and Santa Catarina (Carlos Bolsonaro), alongside a March AtlasIntel poll giving PL's Capitão Alberto Neto the edge in Amazonas. PL's ascent to the Senate's largest current bancada with 15 seats in January 2026 via defections further bolsters positioning. MDB trails at 11% with advantages in Northeast strongholds like Amazonas (Eduardo Braga) and Pará (Helder Barbalho), per Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas data. Flávio Bolsonaro's recent presidential poll surge, including a March 26 AtlasIntel runoff lead over Lula, amplifies PL momentum, though Castro's TSE ineligibility ruling and Simone Tebet's MDB-to-PSB switch introduce uncertainties ahead of candidate filings.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 74% implied probability to win the most seats among the 54 up for grabs in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, driven by recent state-level polls showing PL candidates leading in key races such as Rio de Janeiro (Cláudio Castro), Distrito Federal (Michelle Bolsonaro), and Santa Catarina (Carlos Bolsonaro), alongside a March AtlasIntel poll giving PL's Capitão Alberto Neto the edge in Amazonas. PL's ascent to the Senate's largest current bancada with 15 seats in January 2026 via defections further bolsters positioning. MDB trails at 11% with advantages in Northeast strongholds like Amazonas (Eduardo Braga) and Pará (Helder Barbalho), per Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas data. Flávio Bolsonaro's recent presidential poll surge, including a March 26 AtlasIntel runoff lead over Lula, amplifies PL momentum, though Castro's TSE ineligibility ruling and Simone Tebet's MDB-to-PSB switch introduce uncertainties ahead of candidate filings.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 74% implied probability to win the most seats among the 54 up for grabs in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, driven by recent state-level polls showing PL candidates leading in key races such as Rio de Janeiro (Cláudio Castro), Distrito Federal (Michelle Bolsonaro), and Santa Catarina (Carlos Bolsonaro), alongside a March AtlasIntel poll giving PL's Capitão Alberto Neto the edge in Amazonas. PL's ascent to the Senate's largest current bancada with 15 seats in January 2026 via defections further bolsters positioning. MDB trails at 11% with advantages in Northeast strongholds like Amazonas (Eduardo Braga) and Pará (Helder Barbalho), per Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas data. Flávio Bolsonaro's recent presidential poll surge, including a March 26 AtlasIntel runoff lead over Lula, amplifies PL momentum, though Castro's TSE ineligibility ruling and Simone Tebet's MDB-to-PSB switch introduce uncertainties ahead of candidate filings.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"下屆巴西參議院選舉：贏得最多席位" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "PL" at 73%, followed by "巴西民主運動黨（MDB）" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "下屆巴西參議院選舉：贏得最多席位" has generated $239.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "下屆巴西參議院選舉：贏得最多席位," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "下屆巴西參議院選舉：贏得最多席位" is "PL" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "巴西民主運動黨（MDB）" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "下屆巴西參議院選舉：贏得最多席位" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.