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政治·11月4日選舉

MN-04眾議院選舉獲勝者

Market icon
政治·11月4日選舉

MN-04眾議院選舉獲勝者

最新
Polymarket
最新

民主黨

$0 交易量

92%

共和黨

$82 交易量

8%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Betty McCollum's commanding position in Minnesota's 4th Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+18, drives trader consensus toward a 91.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party nominee. McCollum, seeking reelection after winning her last race by a wide margin, benefits from the district's urban St. Paul core and educated suburbs that consistently deliver large Democratic margins, as seen in recent presidential results. No major Republican challenger has emerged ahead of the June 2 filing deadline, and statewide polling like Emerson's February survey shows Democrats leading GOP foes amid national midterm dynamics. Shifts could arise from an unforeseen McCollum retirement or scandal, a high-profile GOP recruit post-primary on August 11, or a broader Republican wave fueled by economic discontent.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$82
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Betty McCollum's commanding position in Minnesota's 4th Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+18, drives trader consensus toward a 91.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party nominee. McCollum, seeking reelection after winning her last race by a wide margin, benefits from the district's urban St. Paul core and educated suburbs that consistently deliver large Democratic margins, as seen in recent presidential results. No major Republican challenger has emerged ahead of the June 2 filing deadline, and statewide polling like Emerson's February survey shows Democrats leading GOP foes amid national midterm dynamics. Shifts could arise from an unforeseen McCollum retirement or scandal, a high-profile GOP recruit post-primary on August 11, or a broader Republican wave fueled by economic discontent.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$82
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"MN-04眾議院選舉獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "民主黨" at 92%, followed by "共和黨" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"MN-04眾議院選舉獲勝者" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "MN-04眾議院選舉獲勝者," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MN-04眾議院選舉獲勝者" is "民主黨" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "共和黨" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MN-04眾議院選舉獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.