Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors SpaceX at 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by its staggering $350 billion private valuation from a December 2024 employee tender offer—dwarfing competitors—and Elon Musk's reiterated openness to a Starlink spin-off public listing amid accelerating Starship test successes and multibillion-dollar NASA contracts. xAI follows at 25.5%, buoyed by its fresh $6 billion funding round in December valuing the AI startup at $50 billion, though lacking concrete IPO timelines. OpenAI (4.7%) and Anthropic (4.2%) lag due to sub-$200 billion valuations, ongoing private funding reliance, and AI regulatory headwinds delaying public market debuts. Watch for S-1 filings or Musk updates as key catalysts, given historical slippage in space and AI timelines.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於SpaceX 88%
OpenAI 4.7%
Anthropic 4.3%
Kraken <1%
$1,386,598 交易量
$1,386,598 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
88%
OpenAI
5%
Anthropic
4%
Kraken
1%
Databricks
1%
Discord
1%
字節跳動
<1%
Stripe
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
SpaceX 88%
OpenAI 4.7%
Anthropic 4.3%
Kraken <1%
$1,386,598 交易量
$1,386,598 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$174,293 交易量
88%
OpenAI
$292,911 交易量
5%
Anthropic
$142,632 交易量
4%
Kraken
$362,121 交易量
1%
Databricks
$65,157 交易量
1%
Discord
$66,131 交易量
1%
字節跳動
$82,692 交易量
<1%
Stripe
$36,040 交易量
<1%
SHEIN
$50,787 交易量
<1%
Revolut
$23,661 交易量
<1%
Waymo
$38,571 交易量
<1%
Perplexity AI
$51,603 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors SpaceX at 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by its staggering $350 billion private valuation from a December 2024 employee tender offer—dwarfing competitors—and Elon Musk's reiterated openness to a Starlink spin-off public listing amid accelerating Starship test successes and multibillion-dollar NASA contracts. xAI follows at 25.5%, buoyed by its fresh $6 billion funding round in December valuing the AI startup at $50 billion, though lacking concrete IPO timelines. OpenAI (4.7%) and Anthropic (4.2%) lag due to sub-$200 billion valuations, ongoing private funding reliance, and AI regulatory headwinds delaying public market debuts. Watch for S-1 filings or Musk updates as key catalysts, given historical slippage in space and AI timelines.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間： Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
交易量
$1,386,598結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors SpaceX at 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by its staggering $350 billion private valuation from a December 2024 employee tender offer—dwarfing competitors—and Elon Musk's reiterated openness to a Starlink spin-off public listing amid accelerating Starship test successes and multibillion-dollar NASA contracts. xAI follows at 25.5%, buoyed by its fresh $6 billion funding round in December valuing the AI startup at $50 billion, though lacking concrete IPO timelines. OpenAI (4.7%) and Anthropic (4.2%) lag due to sub-$200 billion valuations, ongoing private funding reliance, and AI regulatory headwinds delaying public market debuts. Watch for S-1 filings or Musk updates as key catalysts, given historical slippage in space and AI timelines.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$1,386,598結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors SpaceX at 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by its staggering $350 billion private valuation from a December 2024 employee tender offer—dwarfing competitors—and Elon Musk's reiterated openness to a Starlink spin-off public listing amid accelerating Starship test successes and multibillion-dollar NASA contracts. xAI follows at 25.5%, buoyed by its fresh $6 billion funding round in December valuing the AI startup at $50 billion, though lacking concrete IPO timelines. OpenAI (4.7%) and Anthropic (4.2%) lag due to sub-$200 billion valuations, ongoing private funding reliance, and AI regulatory headwinds delaying public market debuts. Watch for S-1 filings or Musk updates as key catalysts, given historical slippage in space and AI timelines.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions