Incumbent Republican Speaker Mike Johnson, who qualified for re-election on February 11 amid predictions of GOP House gains, dominates trader sentiment in Louisiana's 4th Congressional District—a safely Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+26. Facing two minor Republican primary challengers and Democrats like educator Matt Gromlich and farmer Conrad Cable in the May 16 jungle primary, Johnson's strong name recognition and past easy victories underpin the 91% implied probability for a Republican winner. While low Democratic prospects reflect the district's rural conservative base, scenarios like a major scandal, health issue for Johnson, or unexpectedly high turnout could challenge this, though historical base rates for such safe seats favor continuity ahead of the November general.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-03
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
9%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
Republican Party
$0 交易量
92%
Democratic Party
$0 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Speaker Mike Johnson, who qualified for re-election on February 11 amid predictions of GOP House gains, dominates trader sentiment in Louisiana's 4th Congressional District—a safely Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+26. Facing two minor Republican primary challengers and Democrats like educator Matt Gromlich and farmer Conrad Cable in the May 16 jungle primary, Johnson's strong name recognition and past easy victories underpin the 91% implied probability for a Republican winner. While low Democratic prospects reflect the district's rural conservative base, scenarios like a major scandal, health issue for Johnson, or unexpectedly high turnout could challenge this, though historical base rates for such safe seats favor continuity ahead of the November general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Speaker Mike Johnson, who qualified for re-election on February 11 amid predictions of GOP House gains, dominates trader sentiment in Louisiana's 4th Congressional District—a safely Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+26. Facing two minor Republican primary challengers and Democrats like educator Matt Gromlich and farmer Conrad Cable in the May 16 jungle primary, Johnson's strong name recognition and past easy victories underpin the 91% implied probability for a Republican winner. While low Democratic prospects reflect the district's rural conservative base, scenarios like a major scandal, health issue for Johnson, or unexpectedly high turnout could challenge this, though historical base rates for such safe seats favor continuity ahead of the November general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Speaker Mike Johnson, who qualified for re-election on February 11 amid predictions of GOP House gains, dominates trader sentiment in Louisiana's 4th Congressional District—a safely Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+26. Facing two minor Republican primary challengers and Democrats like educator Matt Gromlich and farmer Conrad Cable in the May 16 jungle primary, Johnson's strong name recognition and past easy victories underpin the 91% implied probability for a Republican winner. While low Democratic prospects reflect the district's rural conservative base, scenarios like a major scandal, health issue for Johnson, or unexpectedly high turnout could challenge this, though historical base rates for such safe seats favor continuity ahead of the November general.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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