Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, driven by the Trump administration's March 17 limited 60-day waiver for energy products and fertilizer amid Middle East supply tensions, which addressed short-term disruptions but underscored the law's entrenchment without statutory repeal. This executive action, expiring mid-May without extension signals, highlights structural barriers including fierce maritime union lobbying, national security arguments from shipbuilders, and stalled congressional bills like H.R.3940 (Open America's Waters Act). Absent accelerated legislative momentum, traders anticipate sustained requirements, protecting U.S.-flagged vessel economics while elevating coastal shipping costs. Key watch: waiver renewal or reform hearings in coming weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$47,622 交易量
$47,622 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$47,622 交易量
$47,622 交易量
2026-06-30
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, driven by the Trump administration's March 17 limited 60-day waiver for energy products and fertilizer amid Middle East supply tensions, which addressed short-term disruptions but underscored the law's entrenchment without statutory repeal. This executive action, expiring mid-May without extension signals, highlights structural barriers including fierce maritime union lobbying, national security arguments from shipbuilders, and stalled congressional bills like H.R.3940 (Open America's Waters Act). Absent accelerated legislative momentum, traders anticipate sustained requirements, protecting U.S.-flagged vessel economics while elevating coastal shipping costs. Key watch: waiver renewal or reform hearings in coming weeks.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
交易量
$47,622結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, driven by the Trump administration's March 17 limited 60-day waiver for energy products and fertilizer amid Middle East supply tensions, which addressed short-term disruptions but underscored the law's entrenchment without statutory repeal. This executive action, expiring mid-May without extension signals, highlights structural barriers including fierce maritime union lobbying, national security arguments from shipbuilders, and stalled congressional bills like H.R.3940 (Open America's Waters Act). Absent accelerated legislative momentum, traders anticipate sustained requirements, protecting U.S.-flagged vessel economics while elevating coastal shipping costs. Key watch: waiver renewal or reform hearings in coming weeks.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$47,622結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, driven by the Trump administration's March 17 limited 60-day waiver for energy products and fertilizer amid Middle East supply tensions, which addressed short-term disruptions but underscored the law's entrenchment without statutory repeal. This executive action, expiring mid-May without extension signals, highlights structural barriers including fierce maritime union lobbying, national security arguments from shipbuilders, and stalled congressional bills like H.R.3940 (Open America's Waters Act). Absent accelerated legislative momentum, traders anticipate sustained requirements, protecting U.S.-flagged vessel economics while elevating coastal shipping costs. Key watch: waiver renewal or reform hearings in coming weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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