Vice President JD Vance has emerged as Iran's preferred US interlocutor amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, conducting backchannel communications via Pakistani intermediaries as recently as March 31 to convey President Trump's impatience for a ceasefire meeting US demands on nuclear issues and infrastructure threats. Iran rejected direct talks with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, but no physical diplomatic meeting—requiring Vance's in-person participation as official negotiator—has materialized, with recent reports denying imminent sessions in Pakistan or Turkey. Escalation risks, including potential airstrikes, heighten barriers, while trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities around 15% for a meeting by April 30, pending verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs or scheduled summits.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$270,418 交易量
2026-04-30
4月10日
3%
4月30日
15%
$270,418 交易量
4月10日
$97,938 交易量
3%
4月30日
$13,431 交易量
15%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Vice President JD Vance has emerged as Iran's preferred US interlocutor amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, conducting backchannel communications via Pakistani intermediaries as recently as March 31 to convey President Trump's impatience for a ceasefire meeting US demands on nuclear issues and infrastructure threats. Iran rejected direct talks with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, but no physical diplomatic meeting—requiring Vance's in-person participation as official negotiator—has materialized, with recent reports denying imminent sessions in Pakistan or Turkey. Escalation risks, including potential airstrikes, heighten barriers, while trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities around 15% for a meeting by April 30, pending verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs or scheduled summits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 30, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
交易量
$270,418結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 30, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Vice President JD Vance has emerged as Iran's preferred US interlocutor amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, conducting backchannel communications via Pakistani intermediaries as recently as March 31 to convey President Trump's impatience for a ceasefire meeting US demands on nuclear issues and infrastructure threats. Iran rejected direct talks with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, but no physical diplomatic meeting—requiring Vance's in-person participation as official negotiator—has materialized, with recent reports denying imminent sessions in Pakistan or Turkey. Escalation risks, including potential airstrikes, heighten barriers, while trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities around 15% for a meeting by April 30, pending verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs or scheduled summits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$270,418結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 30, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vice President JD Vance has emerged as Iran's preferred US interlocutor amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, conducting backchannel communications via Pakistani intermediaries as recently as March 31 to convey President Trump's impatience for a ceasefire meeting US demands on nuclear issues and infrastructure threats. Iran rejected direct talks with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, but no physical diplomatic meeting—requiring Vance's in-person participation as official negotiator—has materialized, with recent reports denying imminent sessions in Pakistan or Turkey. Escalation risks, including potential airstrikes, heighten barriers, while trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities around 15% for a meeting by April 30, pending verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs or scheduled summits.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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