US and Israeli airstrikes continue targeting Iranian petrochemical plants, steel facilities, and infrastructure, including recent attacks on the Mahshahr Petrochemical Zone that killed five, while Iran retaliates with missile barrages on Israel, Gulf states, and US assets amid a search for a missing American pilot from a downed jet. President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum expiring April 6 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening escalated strikes on energy sites if unmet, as Tehran rejects demands and vows "hell" in response. Ceasefire talks mediated by Pakistan have deadlocked over nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, and reparations, with no de-escalation signals despite Trump's claims of nearing core objectives like degrading Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities. Israeli polls show waning domestic support, but mutual threats sustain the conflict's momentum into late spring.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$13,954,192 交易量
2026-06-30
4月15日
4%
4月7日
1%
4月30日
13%
5月15日
30%
6月30日
47%
12月31日
83%
$13,954,192 交易量
4月15日
$2,120,859 交易量
4%
4月7日
$1,218,866 交易量
1%
4月30日
$1,496,284 交易量
13%
5月15日
$1,928,045 交易量
30%
6月30日
$1,444,026 交易量
47%
12月31日
$583,657 交易量
83%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US and Israeli airstrikes continue targeting Iranian petrochemical plants, steel facilities, and infrastructure, including recent attacks on the Mahshahr Petrochemical Zone that killed five, while Iran retaliates with missile barrages on Israel, Gulf states, and US assets amid a search for a missing American pilot from a downed jet. President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum expiring April 6 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening escalated strikes on energy sites if unmet, as Tehran rejects demands and vows "hell" in response. Ceasefire talks mediated by Pakistan have deadlocked over nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, and reparations, with no de-escalation signals despite Trump's claims of nearing core objectives like degrading Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities. Israeli polls show waning domestic support, but mutual threats sustain the conflict's momentum into late spring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
市場開放時間： Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
交易量
$13,954,192結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US and Israeli airstrikes continue targeting Iranian petrochemical plants, steel facilities, and infrastructure, including recent attacks on the Mahshahr Petrochemical Zone that killed five, while Iran retaliates with missile barrages on Israel, Gulf states, and US assets amid a search for a missing American pilot from a downed jet. President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum expiring April 6 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening escalated strikes on energy sites if unmet, as Tehran rejects demands and vows "hell" in response. Ceasefire talks mediated by Pakistan have deadlocked over nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, and reparations, with no de-escalation signals despite Trump's claims of nearing core objectives like degrading Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities. Israeli polls show waning domestic support, but mutual threats sustain the conflict's momentum into late spring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
交易量
$13,954,192結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes continue targeting Iranian petrochemical plants, steel facilities, and infrastructure, including recent attacks on the Mahshahr Petrochemical Zone that killed five, while Iran retaliates with missile barrages on Israel, Gulf states, and US assets amid a search for a missing American pilot from a downed jet. President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum expiring April 6 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening escalated strikes on energy sites if unmet, as Tehran rejects demands and vows "hell" in response. Ceasefire talks mediated by Pakistan have deadlocked over nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, and reparations, with no de-escalation signals despite Trump's claims of nearing core objectives like degrading Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities. Israeli polls show waning domestic support, but mutual threats sustain the conflict's momentum into late spring.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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