Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 17, 2026, primary with 65.5% of the vote, setting up a rematch against Republican Tom Hanson, who won his primary with 71.9% and has lost to Quigley by around 30 points in the past three general elections. The district's Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19, combined with consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting Quigley's long tenure since 2009 and the seat's urban Chicago base. While unlikely, a major scandal, health issue for Quigley, or overwhelming national Republican midterm wave could shift odds before the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主黨
94%
共和黨
6%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主黨
$1,346 交易量
94%
共和黨
$1,465 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 17, 2026, primary with 65.5% of the vote, setting up a rematch against Republican Tom Hanson, who won his primary with 71.9% and has lost to Quigley by around 30 points in the past three general elections. The district's Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19, combined with consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting Quigley's long tenure since 2009 and the seat's urban Chicago base. While unlikely, a major scandal, health issue for Quigley, or overwhelming national Republican midterm wave could shift odds before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$2,811結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 17, 2026, primary with 65.5% of the vote, setting up a rematch against Republican Tom Hanson, who won his primary with 71.9% and has lost to Quigley by around 30 points in the past three general elections. The district's Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19, combined with consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting Quigley's long tenure since 2009 and the seat's urban Chicago base. While unlikely, a major scandal, health issue for Quigley, or overwhelming national Republican midterm wave could shift odds before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$2,811結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 17, 2026, primary with 65.5% of the vote, setting up a rematch against Republican Tom Hanson, who won his primary with 71.9% and has lost to Quigley by around 30 points in the past three general elections. The district's Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19, combined with consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting Quigley's long tenure since 2009 and the seat's urban Chicago base. While unlikely, a major scandal, health issue for Quigley, or overwhelming national Republican midterm wave could shift odds before the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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