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政治·中期

2026年中期選舉後有多少共和黨州長？

Market icon
政治·中期

2026年中期選舉後有多少共和黨州長？

24–25 30%

22–23 29%

少於22 16%

26–27 9%

Polymarket

$601,544 交易量

24–25 30%

22–23 29%

少於22 16%

26–27 9%

Polymarket

$601,544 交易量

少於22

$0 交易量

16%

22–23

$3,118 交易量

29%

24–25

$27,763 交易量

30%

26–27

$6,247 交易量

9%

28–29

$549,411 交易量

6%

30–31

$3,938 交易量

2%

32+

$11,068 交易量

6%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 24–25 Republican governors after the November 2026 midterms at 30%, nearly tied with 22–23 at 29%, reflecting a tightly contested map amid Republicans' current 26 governorships. Recent Sabato's Crystal Ball rating shifts on March 19 upgraded Democratic prospects in Arizona (Leans Democratic for incumbent Katie Hobbs) and flipped Georgia's open seat to Toss-up, while downgrading Ohio's open race to Leans Republican, introducing uncertainty in battlegrounds like Kansas (open, Leans Republican), Nevada, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. These changes counter GOP structural edges in Trump-won states and defensive open seats, tempered by historical midterm losses for the president's party. Primaries this summer and polling trends in swing states could widen the spread toward separation.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$601,544
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 24–25 Republican governors after the November 2026 midterms at 30%, nearly tied with 22–23 at 29%, reflecting a tightly contested map amid Republicans' current 26 governorships. Recent Sabato's Crystal Ball rating shifts on March 19 upgraded Democratic prospects in Arizona (Leans Democratic for incumbent Katie Hobbs) and flipped Georgia's open seat to Toss-up, while downgrading Ohio's open race to Leans Republican, introducing uncertainty in battlegrounds like Kansas (open, Leans Republican), Nevada, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. These changes counter GOP structural edges in Trump-won states and defensive open seats, tempered by historical midterm losses for the president's party. Primaries this summer and polling trends in swing states could widen the spread toward separation.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$601,544
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年中期選舉後有多少共和黨州長？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "24–25" at 30%, followed by "22–23" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 30¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年中期選舉後有多少共和黨州長？" has generated $601.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 15, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年中期選舉後有多少共和黨州長？," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年中期選舉後有多少共和黨州長？" is "24–25" at 30%, meaning the market assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "22–23" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年中期選舉後有多少共和黨州長？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.