Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026 at a leading 39.1% implied probability, reflecting hawkish repricing following the December 18 FOMC meeting where the dot plot projected just 50 basis points of easing in 2025—down from prior forecasts—and a steady 3.4% funds rate by end-2026 amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. Hot November CPI (core +0.3% month-over-month versus 0.1% expected) and PCE data, coupled with a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.1%, strong December nonfarm payrolls), have bolstered higher-for-longer rate expectations, further pressured by anticipated Trump-era fiscal stimulus and tariffs. One cut (25 basis points) follows at 25.5%, signaling closely contested sentiment. Key catalysts include January 15 CPI release and the January 28-29 FOMC meeting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於0（0個基點） 38.9%
1（25個基點） 27%
2（50個基點） 18%
3次（75個基點） 10%
$13,995,768 交易量
$13,995,768 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
0（0個基點）
39%
1（25個基點）
27%
2（50個基點）
18%
3次（75個基點）
10%
4（100 個基點）
4%
5次（125個基點）
2%
6次（150個基點）
1%
7次（175個基點）
1%
8次（200個基點）
1%
9次（225個基點）
<1%
10（250個基點）
<1%
11 次（275 個基點）
<1%
12次以上（超過300個基點）
1%
0（0個基點） 38.9%
1（25個基點） 27%
2（50個基點） 18%
3次（75個基點） 10%
$13,995,768 交易量
$13,995,768 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
0（0個基點）
$2,562,686 交易量
39%
1（25個基點）
$853,253 交易量
27%
2（50個基點）
$797,319 交易量
18%
3次（75個基點）
$775,036 交易量
10%
4（100 個基點）
$748,204 交易量
4%
5次（125個基點）
$774,430 交易量
2%
6次（150個基點）
$1,768,526 交易量
1%
7次（175個基點）
$758,860 交易量
1%
8次（200個基點）
$945,700 交易量
1%
9次（225個基點）
$676,086 交易量
<1%
10（250個基點）
$807,771 交易量
<1%
11 次（275 個基點）
$985,971 交易量
<1%
12次以上（超過300個基點）
$1,542,082 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026 at a leading 39.1% implied probability, reflecting hawkish repricing following the December 18 FOMC meeting where the dot plot projected just 50 basis points of easing in 2025—down from prior forecasts—and a steady 3.4% funds rate by end-2026 amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. Hot November CPI (core +0.3% month-over-month versus 0.1% expected) and PCE data, coupled with a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.1%, strong December nonfarm payrolls), have bolstered higher-for-longer rate expectations, further pressured by anticipated Trump-era fiscal stimulus and tariffs. One cut (25 basis points) follows at 25.5%, signaling closely contested sentiment. Key catalysts include January 15 CPI release and the January 28-29 FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市場開放時間： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$13,995,768結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026 at a leading 39.1% implied probability, reflecting hawkish repricing following the December 18 FOMC meeting where the dot plot projected just 50 basis points of easing in 2025—down from prior forecasts—and a steady 3.4% funds rate by end-2026 amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. Hot November CPI (core +0.3% month-over-month versus 0.1% expected) and PCE data, coupled with a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.1%, strong December nonfarm payrolls), have bolstered higher-for-longer rate expectations, further pressured by anticipated Trump-era fiscal stimulus and tariffs. One cut (25 basis points) follows at 25.5%, signaling closely contested sentiment. Key catalysts include January 15 CPI release and the January 28-29 FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$13,995,768結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026 at a leading 39.1% implied probability, reflecting hawkish repricing following the December 18 FOMC meeting where the dot plot projected just 50 basis points of easing in 2025—down from prior forecasts—and a steady 3.4% funds rate by end-2026 amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. Hot November CPI (core +0.3% month-over-month versus 0.1% expected) and PCE data, coupled with a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.1%, strong December nonfarm payrolls), have bolstered higher-for-longer rate expectations, further pressured by anticipated Trump-era fiscal stimulus and tariffs. One cut (25 basis points) follows at 25.5%, signaling closely contested sentiment. Key catalysts include January 15 CPI release and the January 28-29 FOMC meeting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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