Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing a tight spread of maximum temperatures around Paris on April 9, with means near 18-20°C amid mild spring conditions, explaining the closely matched probabilities for 17-23°C outcomes. Recent model runs indicate slight warming trends from a potential ridge of high pressure over Western Europe, boosting odds for 23°C or higher to 25.5%, while cooler 17-19°C bins at 25% each account for risks of cloud cover or transient fronts reducing insolation. Historical April 9 highs average 16°C, but current above-normal anomalies favor warmth; inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to jet stream variability. Watch Météo-France updates and next ECMWF deterministic run for shifts before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Paris on April 9?
Highest temperature in Paris on April 9?
23°C or higher 26%
21°C 22%
20°C 21%
19°C 20%
13°C or below
14%
14°C
3%
15°C
17%
16°C
17%
17°C
18%
18°C
19%
19°C
20%
20°C
21%
21°C
22%
22°C
17%
23°C or higher
26%
23°C or higher 26%
21°C 22%
20°C 21%
19°C 20%
13°C or below
14%
14°C
3%
15°C
17%
16°C
17%
17°C
18%
18°C
19%
19°C
20%
20°C
21%
21°C
22%
22°C
17%
23°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 5, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing a tight spread of maximum temperatures around Paris on April 9, with means near 18-20°C amid mild spring conditions, explaining the closely matched probabilities for 17-23°C outcomes. Recent model runs indicate slight warming trends from a potential ridge of high pressure over Western Europe, boosting odds for 23°C or higher to 25.5%, while cooler 17-19°C bins at 25% each account for risks of cloud cover or transient fronts reducing insolation. Historical April 9 highs average 16°C, but current above-normal anomalies favor warmth; inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to jet stream variability. Watch Météo-France updates and next ECMWF deterministic run for shifts before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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