Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model forecasts for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station's highest temperature on April 5, with ensemble means hovering around 20-21°C amid divergent guidance on cloud cover and timing. Recent southerly flows over the past week have delivered above-average early April highs in the upper teens Celsius—warmer than the climatological 16-18°C baseline—boosting optimism for 21-22°C outcomes, but incoming frontal moisture risks scattered showers that could cap peaks at 19-20°C by limiting solar heating. Key differentiators include steering patterns from weak high-pressure ridging versus low-pressure troughs; watch JMA's midday update tomorrow for refined 24-hour guidance as resolution nears.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於4月5日東京氣溫最高?
4月5日東京氣溫最高?
21°C 26%
20°C 20%
22°C 20%
23°C或以上 14%
13°C或以下
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
2%
17°C
3%
18°C
7%
19°C
12%
20°C
20%
21°C
26%
22°C
20%
23°C或以上
14%
21°C 26%
20°C 20%
22°C 20%
23°C或以上 14%
13°C或以下
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
2%
17°C
3%
18°C
7%
19°C
12%
20°C
20%
21°C
26%
22°C
20%
23°C或以上
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model forecasts for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station's highest temperature on April 5, with ensemble means hovering around 20-21°C amid divergent guidance on cloud cover and timing. Recent southerly flows over the past week have delivered above-average early April highs in the upper teens Celsius—warmer than the climatological 16-18°C baseline—boosting optimism for 21-22°C outcomes, but incoming frontal moisture risks scattered showers that could cap peaks at 19-20°C by limiting solar heating. Key differentiators include steering patterns from weak high-pressure ridging versus low-pressure troughs; watch JMA's midday update tomorrow for refined 24-hour guidance as resolution nears.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions