Latest Météo-France guidance for the April 6-12 week forecasts a sunny, very warm start for the season in Paris, driving trader sentiment toward highs of 20-24°C at around 17-18% each, while elevating 28°C or higher to 25.5% on potential high-pressure ridging and southerly flow. Counterbalancing this, 25% market-implied odds for 18°C or below reflect ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS models, where a lingering post-March cold snap could introduce northerly winds or clouds capping peaks. Historical April highs average 16°C (Saffir-Simpson not applicable), with spring volatility amplified by neutral ENSO conditions; daily 00Z model updates and Arome high-resolution runs will clarify boundary layer mixing and peak temperature thresholds by resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Paris on April 7?
Highest temperature in Paris on April 7?
18°C or below 26%
21°C 21%
20°C 18%
22°C 15%
18°C or below
26%
19°C
8%
20°C
18%
21°C
21%
22°C
18%
23°C
9%
24°C
9%
25°C
8%
26°C
14%
27°C
12%
28°C or higher
14%
18°C or below 26%
21°C 21%
20°C 18%
22°C 15%
18°C or below
26%
19°C
8%
20°C
18%
21°C
21%
22°C
18%
23°C
9%
24°C
9%
25°C
8%
26°C
14%
27°C
12%
28°C or higher
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 3, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest Météo-France guidance for the April 6-12 week forecasts a sunny, very warm start for the season in Paris, driving trader sentiment toward highs of 20-24°C at around 17-18% each, while elevating 28°C or higher to 25.5% on potential high-pressure ridging and southerly flow. Counterbalancing this, 25% market-implied odds for 18°C or below reflect ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS models, where a lingering post-March cold snap could introduce northerly winds or clouds capping peaks. Historical April highs average 16°C (Saffir-Simpson not applicable), with spring volatility amplified by neutral ENSO conditions; daily 00Z model updates and Arome high-resolution runs will clarify boundary layer mixing and peak temperature thresholds by resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions