Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 7, with Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS showing divergent members: some projecting below 14°C under northerly cold air advection from recent frontal passages, others above 24°C if a subtropical high-pressure ridge strengthens. Typical early April highs average 18°C amid spring variability driven by jet stream waviness and Pacific moisture influx, but daily swings of 5–10°C are common due to cloud cover, winds, and transient lows. JMA's April 2 one-month outlook signals near-normal conditions with fluctuations; next 00Z model runs and JMA advisories will clarify steering patterns and refinement probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於4月7日東京氣溫最高?
4月7日東京氣溫最高?
18°C 21%
17°C 16%
19°C 14%
20°C 14%
14°C或以下
7%
15°C
6%
16°C
5%
17°C
16%
18°C
21%
19°C
14%
20°C
14%
21°C
8%
22°C
8%
23°C
8%
24°C或以上
8%
18°C 21%
17°C 16%
19°C 14%
20°C 14%
14°C或以下
7%
15°C
6%
16°C
5%
17°C
16%
18°C
21%
19°C
14%
20°C
14%
21°C
8%
22°C
8%
23°C
8%
24°C或以上
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 3, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 7, with Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS showing divergent members: some projecting below 14°C under northerly cold air advection from recent frontal passages, others above 24°C if a subtropical high-pressure ridge strengthens. Typical early April highs average 18°C amid spring variability driven by jet stream waviness and Pacific moisture influx, but daily swings of 5–10°C are common due to cloud cover, winds, and transient lows. JMA's April 2 one-month outlook signals near-normal conditions with fluctuations; next 00Z model runs and JMA advisories will clarify steering patterns and refinement probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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