Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors milder heat in Lucknow on March 26, with 41.5% implied probability for 34°C or below and 30.5% for exactly 35°C, driven by the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) latest forecast projecting a daytime high of 34-36°C amid a cooling trend from recent northerly winds. March climatology in Lucknow typically sees maximums averaging 32-35°C, but urban heat island effects and lingering winter soil moisture have tempered expectations for extremes above 37°C, as evidenced by satellite-derived land surface temperatures remaining below seasonal peaks. No heatwave alerts from IMD boost confidence in these lower outcomes, though model ensembles indicate 10-20% upside risk for 36-37°C if cloud cover dissipates unexpectedly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 26?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 26?
34°C or below 47%
35°C 30%
36°C 20%
37°C 9%
$33,120 交易量
$33,120 交易量
34°C or below
47%
35°C
30%
36°C
20%
37°C
9%
38°C
5%
39°C
2%
40°C
2%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
34°C or below 47%
35°C 30%
36°C 20%
37°C 9%
$33,120 交易量
$33,120 交易量
34°C or below
47%
35°C
30%
36°C
20%
37°C
9%
38°C
5%
39°C
2%
40°C
2%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors milder heat in Lucknow on March 26, with 41.5% implied probability for 34°C or below and 30.5% for exactly 35°C, driven by the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) latest forecast projecting a daytime high of 34-36°C amid a cooling trend from recent northerly winds. March climatology in Lucknow typically sees maximums averaging 32-35°C, but urban heat island effects and lingering winter soil moisture have tempered expectations for extremes above 37°C, as evidenced by satellite-derived land surface temperatures remaining below seasonal peaks. No heatwave alerts from IMD boost confidence in these lower outcomes, though model ensembles indicate 10-20% upside risk for 36-37°C if cloud cover dissipates unexpectedly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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