Trader sentiment favors mid-80s highs in Houston on March 27, with 84-85°F leading at 31% implied probability, closely trailed by 86-87°F at 26%, reflecting tight ensemble forecast spreads from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models centering on 84-87°F. A building upper-level ridge over Texas drives subsidence warming and mostly sunny skies, boosting temperatures well above the March climatological average of 75°F, though Gulf of Mexico moisture and potential sea breeze incursions introduce differentiation—earlier onshore flow could cap peaks at 82-85°F via evaporative cooling, while delayed breezes favor 86-89°F. Model runs show just 2-3°F variance, with ECMWF leaning cooler amid slight cloud risks, explaining the clustered odds over hotter 90°F+ outliers at under 25% combined.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Houston on March 27?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 27?
84-85°F 31%
86-87°F 26%
88-89°F 22%
82-83°F 19%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
8%
80-81°F
6%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
31%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
23%
90-91°F
7%
92-93°F
7%
94°F or higher
9%
84-85°F 31%
86-87°F 26%
88-89°F 22%
82-83°F 19%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
8%
80-81°F
6%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
31%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
23%
90-91°F
7%
92-93°F
7%
94°F or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment favors mid-80s highs in Houston on March 27, with 84-85°F leading at 31% implied probability, closely trailed by 86-87°F at 26%, reflecting tight ensemble forecast spreads from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models centering on 84-87°F. A building upper-level ridge over Texas drives subsidence warming and mostly sunny skies, boosting temperatures well above the March climatological average of 75°F, though Gulf of Mexico moisture and potential sea breeze incursions introduce differentiation—earlier onshore flow could cap peaks at 82-85°F via evaporative cooling, while delayed breezes favor 86-89°F. Model runs show just 2-3°F variance, with ECMWF leaning cooler amid slight cloud risks, explaining the clustered odds over hotter 90°F+ outliers at under 25% combined.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions