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政治·主要

FL-19共和黨初選獲勝者

Market icon
政治·主要

FL-19共和黨初選獲勝者

Catalina Lauf 53%

麥迪遜·考索恩 14.6%

吉姆·奧伯韋斯 8.9%

吉姆·施瓦茨爾 5%

Polymarket

$18,352 交易量

Catalina Lauf 53%

麥迪遜·考索恩 14.6%

吉姆·奧伯韋斯 8.9%

吉姆·施瓦茨爾 5%

Polymarket

$18,352 交易量

Catalina Lauf

$15,511 交易量

53%

麥迪遜·考索恩

$756 交易量

15%

吉姆·奧伯韋斯

$2,084 交易量

9%

吉姆·施瓦茨爾

$0 交易量

5%

Spencer Roach

$0 交易量

3%

Bob Rommel

$0 交易量

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Catalina Lauf leads trader consensus at 53.5% implied probability in the open Republican primary for Florida's 19th Congressional District after incumbent Byron Donalds vacated the safe seat to pursue the governorship, drawing a crowded field of candidates including several recent transplants from other states. Lauf's edge stems from robust first-quarter 2026 fundraising exceeding $400,000 mostly from small donors, endorsements like Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's in February, and her Trump administration background positioning her as a committed MAGA fighter amid local criticism of "carpetbaggers." Madison Cawthorn trails at 15% on national name recognition despite his North Carolina roots and past scandals, while Jim Oberweis and Jim Schwartzel lag at 10.1% and 8.5% respectively, buoyed by Illinois ties and Schwartzel's $1.28 million war chest. Recent forum debates and social media defenses of outsider candidacies highlight voter tensions over locality versus America First credentials ahead of the August 18 primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$18,352
結束日期
2026-08-18
市場開放時間
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Catalina Lauf leads trader consensus at 53.5% implied probability in the open Republican primary for Florida's 19th Congressional District after incumbent Byron Donalds vacated the safe seat to pursue the governorship, drawing a crowded field of candidates including several recent transplants from other states. Lauf's edge stems from robust first-quarter 2026 fundraising exceeding $400,000 mostly from small donors, endorsements like Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's in February, and her Trump administration background positioning her as a committed MAGA fighter amid local criticism of "carpetbaggers." Madison Cawthorn trails at 15% on national name recognition despite his North Carolina roots and past scandals, while Jim Oberweis and Jim Schwartzel lag at 10.1% and 8.5% respectively, buoyed by Illinois ties and Schwartzel's $1.28 million war chest. Recent forum debates and social media defenses of outsider candidacies highlight voter tensions over locality versus America First credentials ahead of the August 18 primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$18,352
結束日期
2026-08-18
市場開放時間
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-19共和黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Catalina Lauf" at 53%, followed by "吉姆·施瓦茨爾" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-19共和黨初選獲勝者" has generated $18.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-19共和黨初選獲勝者," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-19共和黨初選獲勝者" is "Catalina Lauf" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "吉姆·施瓦茨爾" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-19共和黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.