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選舉·世界選舉

2028年民主黨總統提名人

Market icon
選舉·世界選舉

2028年民主黨總統提名人

加文·紐森 24.3%

亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯 7.9%

喬恩·奧索夫 7.4%

卡馬拉·哈里斯 4.2%

Polymarket

$979,529,660 交易量

加文·紐森 24.3%

亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯 7.9%

喬恩·奧索夫 7.4%

卡馬拉·哈里斯 4.2%

Polymarket

$979,529,660 交易量

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加文·紐森

$18,853,382 交易量

24%

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亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯

$8,201,884 交易量

8%

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喬恩·奧索夫

$7,404,110 交易量

7%

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卡馬拉·哈里斯

$9,141,902 交易量

4%

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皮特·布塔朱吉

$9,770,598 交易量

4%

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喬什·夏皮羅

$6,221,685 交易量

4%

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詹姆斯·塔拉里科

$5,702,646 交易量

2%

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喬恩·斯圖爾特

$12,678,643 交易量

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$12,949,260 交易量

2%

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安迪·貝希爾

$7,851,190 交易量

2%

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馬克·凱利

$11,963,866 交易量

2%

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羅·卡納

$5,421,283 交易量

2%

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史蒂芬·A·史密斯

$15,175,082 交易量

1%

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格雷琴·惠特默

$7,449,610 交易量

1%

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米歇爾·奧巴馬

$22,128,627 交易量

1%

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韋斯·摩爾

$13,857,131 交易量

1%

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魯本·加列戈

$3,763,830 交易量

1%

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科里·布克

$21,618,601 交易量

1%

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馬克·庫班

$18,105,034 交易量

1%

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巨石強森

$9,299,543 交易量

1%

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歐普拉·溫芙蕾

$43,997,047 交易量

1%

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約翰·費特曼

$17,222,004 交易量

1%

Market icon

莉茲·切尼

$33,760,657 交易量

1%

Market icon

拉姆·伊曼紐爾

$11,313,949 交易量

1%

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切爾西·克林頓

$44,895,184 交易量

1%

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克里斯·墨菲

$11,572,330 交易量

1%

Market icon

羅伊·庫珀

$25,763,915 交易量

1%

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拉斐爾·沃諾克

$26,411,483 交易量

1%

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巴拉克·歐巴馬

$26,504,380 交易量

1%

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喬治·克魯尼

$37,647,411 交易量

1%

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蒂姆·瓦爾茲

$37,319,587 交易量

1%

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佐赫蘭·曼達尼

$33,357,724 交易量

1%

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安德魯·楊

$43,017,414 交易量

1%

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勒布朗·詹姆斯

$39,056,941 交易量

1%

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MrBeast

$35,748,483 交易量

1%

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希拉蕊·柯林頓

$38,239,779 交易量

1%

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吉娜·雷蒙多

$28,152,906 交易量

1%

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金·卡戴珊

$33,716,131 交易量

1%

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賈里德·波利斯

$20,329,624 交易量

1%

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菲爾·墨菲

$34,414,902 交易量

1%

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賈思敏·克羅克特

$23,991,266 交易量

1%

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伯尼·桑德斯

$40,248,854 交易量

1%

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貝托·奧羅克

$32,822,707 交易量

1%

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亨特·拜登

$32,477,266 交易量

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24.3% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, reflecting his strong March 2026 POLITICO poll trouncing of Kamala Harris in their home-state primary matchup and recent visibility boosts from a New Hampshire book tour and South by Southwest hints at a national bid. As a term-limited executive with a national fundraising network and vocal opposition to President Trump's agenda, Newsom differentiates through governing experience versus Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's progressive appeal to the left (7.8%) or Sen. Jon Ossoff's swing-state moderation (7.4%). Former VP Harris trails at 4.2% post-2024 defeat. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results elevating House or Senate leaders, early-state polling, and party endorsements in this wide-open field ahead of primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$979,529,660
結束日期
2028-11-07
市場開放時間
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24.3% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, reflecting his strong March 2026 POLITICO poll trouncing of Kamala Harris in their home-state primary matchup and recent visibility boosts from a New Hampshire book tour and South by Southwest hints at a national bid. As a term-limited executive with a national fundraising network and vocal opposition to President Trump's agenda, Newsom differentiates through governing experience versus Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's progressive appeal to the left (7.8%) or Sen. Jon Ossoff's swing-state moderation (7.4%). Former VP Harris trails at 4.2% post-2024 defeat. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results elevating House or Senate leaders, early-state polling, and party endorsements in this wide-open field ahead of primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$979,529,660
結束日期
2028-11-07
市場開放時間
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2028年民主黨總統提名人" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "加文·紐森" at 24%, followed by "亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2028年民主黨總統提名人" has generated $979.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2028年民主黨總統提名人," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2028年民主黨總統提名人" is "加文·紐森" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2028年民主黨總統提名人" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.