Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District—the nation's most Democratic seat per Cook Partisan Voting Index—anchors trader consensus at 94.5% for a Democratic Party general election win on November 3, 2026. The district's overwhelming progressive lean, covering liberal strongholds like Oakland and Berkeley, combined with Simon's freshman incumbency advantage and lack of credible Republican challengers, sustains this lopsided pricing absent recent catalysts. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with the June 2 top-two primary looming as the next key event. Scenarios to upend odds include a GOP top-two advance via low Democratic turnout, a major scandal or legal issue hitting Simon, or an extraordinary national midterm wave.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$12,956 交易量
$12,956 交易量
2026-11-03
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$12,956 交易量
$12,956 交易量
2026-11-03
Democratic Party
$8,131 交易量
95%
Republican Party
$4,825 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District—the nation's most Democratic seat per Cook Partisan Voting Index—anchors trader consensus at 94.5% for a Democratic Party general election win on November 3, 2026. The district's overwhelming progressive lean, covering liberal strongholds like Oakland and Berkeley, combined with Simon's freshman incumbency advantage and lack of credible Republican challengers, sustains this lopsided pricing absent recent catalysts. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with the June 2 top-two primary looming as the next key event. Scenarios to upend odds include a GOP top-two advance via low Democratic turnout, a major scandal or legal issue hitting Simon, or an extraordinary national midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$12,956結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District—the nation's most Democratic seat per Cook Partisan Voting Index—anchors trader consensus at 94.5% for a Democratic Party general election win on November 3, 2026. The district's overwhelming progressive lean, covering liberal strongholds like Oakland and Berkeley, combined with Simon's freshman incumbency advantage and lack of credible Republican challengers, sustains this lopsided pricing absent recent catalysts. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with the June 2 top-two primary looming as the next key event. Scenarios to upend odds include a GOP top-two advance via low Democratic turnout, a major scandal or legal issue hitting Simon, or an extraordinary national midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$12,956結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District—the nation's most Democratic seat per Cook Partisan Voting Index—anchors trader consensus at 94.5% for a Democratic Party general election win on November 3, 2026. The district's overwhelming progressive lean, covering liberal strongholds like Oakland and Berkeley, combined with Simon's freshman incumbency advantage and lack of credible Republican challengers, sustains this lopsided pricing absent recent catalysts. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with the June 2 top-two primary looming as the next key event. Scenarios to upend odds include a GOP top-two advance via low Democratic turnout, a major scandal or legal issue hitting Simon, or an extraordinary national midterm wave.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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