Market icon
政治·國會

2026年的藍色海嘯？

Market icon
政治·國會

2026年的藍色海嘯？

是

49% 機率
Polymarket

$20,525 交易量

是

49% 機率
Polymarket

$20,525 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfRecent generic ballot polling averages place Democrats ahead of Republicans by 3-6 points nationally—leads reminiscent of typical midterm penalties against the president's party but far below the +8-10 margins that fueled the 2018 blue wave. GOP frustrations over the stalled SAVE America Act in the Senate, lacking cloture amid filibuster resistance, risk base turnout erosion in swing districts, while forecasts from Race to the WH and 270toWin project a competitive House flip (Dems net +10 seats) rather than tsunami-level gains of 25+. April special elections in Georgia, Wisconsin, New Jersey, and Virginia offer early tests; widening Democratic leads or economic improvements could tip trader consensus toward Yes or solidify No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
交易量
$20,525
結束日期
2026-11-30
市場開放時間
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfRecent generic ballot polling averages place Democrats ahead of Republicans by 3-6 points nationally—leads reminiscent of typical midterm penalties against the president's party but far below the +8-10 margins that fueled the 2018 blue wave. GOP frustrations over the stalled SAVE America Act in the Senate, lacking cloture amid filibuster resistance, risk base turnout erosion in swing districts, while forecasts from Race to the WH and 270toWin project a competitive House flip (Dems net +10 seats) rather than tsunami-level gains of 25+. April special elections in Georgia, Wisconsin, New Jersey, and Virginia offer early tests; widening Democratic leads or economic improvements could tip trader consensus toward Yes or solidify No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
交易量
$20,525
結束日期
2026-11-30
市場開放時間
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年的藍色海嘯？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年藍色海嘯？" at 49%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年的藍色海嘯？" has generated $20.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年的藍色海嘯？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年的藍色海嘯？" is "2026年藍色海嘯？" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年的藍色海嘯？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.