Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez's overwhelming fundraising advantage—nearly $2.9 million raised and $1.9 million cash on hand through late March—bolsters trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold in New Mexico's competitive 2nd Congressional District, rated Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report and similar forecasters. Vasquez faces no primary opposition ahead of June 2, while Republicans recently consolidated around Greg Cunningham after rival Jose Orozco's April dropout and endorsement, President Trump's April 16 backing, and NRCC inclusion in its MAGA Majority program. The even-partisan district, where Vasquez eked out narrow 2022 and 2024 victories amid Trump carrying it narrowly in 2024, underscores incumbency edge and GOP primary risks as key drivers of the 73.5% Democratic implied probability.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNM-02 House Election Winner
NM-02 House Election Winner
$16,866 ปริมาณ
$16,866 ปริมาณ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
76%
Republican Party
22%
$16,866 ปริมาณ
$16,866 ปริมาณ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,376 ปริมาณ
76%
Republican Party
$15,490 ปริมาณ
22%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez's overwhelming fundraising advantage—nearly $2.9 million raised and $1.9 million cash on hand through late March—bolsters trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold in New Mexico's competitive 2nd Congressional District, rated Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report and similar forecasters. Vasquez faces no primary opposition ahead of June 2, while Republicans recently consolidated around Greg Cunningham after rival Jose Orozco's April dropout and endorsement, President Trump's April 16 backing, and NRCC inclusion in its MAGA Majority program. The even-partisan district, where Vasquez eked out narrow 2022 and 2024 victories amid Trump carrying it narrowly in 2024, underscores incumbency edge and GOP primary risks as key drivers of the 73.5% Democratic implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$16,866วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez's overwhelming fundraising advantage—nearly $2.9 million raised and $1.9 million cash on hand through late March—bolsters trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold in New Mexico's competitive 2nd Congressional District, rated Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report and similar forecasters. Vasquez faces no primary opposition ahead of June 2, while Republicans recently consolidated around Greg Cunningham after rival Jose Orozco's April dropout and endorsement, President Trump's April 16 backing, and NRCC inclusion in its MAGA Majority program. The even-partisan district, where Vasquez eked out narrow 2022 and 2024 victories amid Trump carrying it narrowly in 2024, underscores incumbency edge and GOP primary risks as key drivers of the 73.5% Democratic implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$16,866วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez's overwhelming fundraising advantage—nearly $2.9 million raised and $1.9 million cash on hand through late March—bolsters trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold in New Mexico's competitive 2nd Congressional District, rated Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report and similar forecasters. Vasquez faces no primary opposition ahead of June 2, while Republicans recently consolidated around Greg Cunningham after rival Jose Orozco's April dropout and endorsement, President Trump's April 16 backing, and NRCC inclusion in its MAGA Majority program. The even-partisan district, where Vasquez eked out narrow 2022 and 2024 victories amid Trump carrying it narrowly in 2024, underscores incumbency edge and GOP primary risks as key drivers of the 73.5% Democratic implied probability.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย