Trader consensus in the AZ-06 House race heavily favors the Democratic Party at 76% implied probability, driven by recent polling showing Democratic frontrunner JoAnna Mendoza leading incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani 47%-44% in a GOP-commissioned survey from late March (released April 29), even amid a +/-5% margin of error. This edge builds on Mendoza's Q1 2026 fundraising haul of $2.44 million—more than double Ciscomani's—bolstering her $3.5 million cash reserves ahead of the July 21 primaries, where she dominates Democratic contenders. Voter unease over the Iran war escalation, with national support below 40% and local veterans criticizing GOP stances, further pressures the vulnerable Ciscomani, who won narrow victories in 2022 and 2024 in this Toss Up swing district spanning Tucson suburbs and border counties. Upcoming primaries and general election on November 3 could shift dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAZ-06 House Election Winner
AZ-06 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
75%
Republican Party
21%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$73 ปริมาณ
75%
Republican Party
$272 ปริมาณ
21%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus in the AZ-06 House race heavily favors the Democratic Party at 76% implied probability, driven by recent polling showing Democratic frontrunner JoAnna Mendoza leading incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani 47%-44% in a GOP-commissioned survey from late March (released April 29), even amid a +/-5% margin of error. This edge builds on Mendoza's Q1 2026 fundraising haul of $2.44 million—more than double Ciscomani's—bolstering her $3.5 million cash reserves ahead of the July 21 primaries, where she dominates Democratic contenders. Voter unease over the Iran war escalation, with national support below 40% and local veterans criticizing GOP stances, further pressures the vulnerable Ciscomani, who won narrow victories in 2022 and 2024 in this Toss Up swing district spanning Tucson suburbs and border counties. Upcoming primaries and general election on November 3 could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$345วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus in the AZ-06 House race heavily favors the Democratic Party at 76% implied probability, driven by recent polling showing Democratic frontrunner JoAnna Mendoza leading incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani 47%-44% in a GOP-commissioned survey from late March (released April 29), even amid a +/-5% margin of error. This edge builds on Mendoza's Q1 2026 fundraising haul of $2.44 million—more than double Ciscomani's—bolstering her $3.5 million cash reserves ahead of the July 21 primaries, where she dominates Democratic contenders. Voter unease over the Iran war escalation, with national support below 40% and local veterans criticizing GOP stances, further pressures the vulnerable Ciscomani, who won narrow victories in 2022 and 2024 in this Toss Up swing district spanning Tucson suburbs and border counties. Upcoming primaries and general election on November 3 could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$345วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in the AZ-06 House race heavily favors the Democratic Party at 76% implied probability, driven by recent polling showing Democratic frontrunner JoAnna Mendoza leading incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani 47%-44% in a GOP-commissioned survey from late March (released April 29), even amid a +/-5% margin of error. This edge builds on Mendoza's Q1 2026 fundraising haul of $2.44 million—more than double Ciscomani's—bolstering her $3.5 million cash reserves ahead of the July 21 primaries, where she dominates Democratic contenders. Voter unease over the Iran war escalation, with national support below 40% and local veterans criticizing GOP stances, further pressures the vulnerable Ciscomani, who won narrow victories in 2022 and 2024 in this Toss Up swing district spanning Tucson suburbs and border counties. Upcoming primaries and general election on November 3 could shift dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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