New York’s 12th congressional district, covering Manhattan neighborhoods including the Upper West Side and Midtown, has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, reflected in its strong partisan lean. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the seat for the June 23 Democratic primary, where polling shows a competitive field among candidates including Micah Lasher, Alex Bores, Jack Schlossberg, and George Conway, yet all major contenders are Democrats. Forecasters rate the general election as solidly Democratic, aligning with the market’s 94.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing or turnout collapse not seen in prior elections. Late developments such as primary consolidation or national political shifts could influence margins but face steep structural barriers in this district.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$18,739 ปริมาณ
$18,739 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$18,739 ปริมาณ
$18,739 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$16,248 ปริมาณ
95%
Republican Party
$2,490 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district, covering Manhattan neighborhoods including the Upper West Side and Midtown, has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, reflected in its strong partisan lean. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the seat for the June 23 Democratic primary, where polling shows a competitive field among candidates including Micah Lasher, Alex Bores, Jack Schlossberg, and George Conway, yet all major contenders are Democrats. Forecasters rate the general election as solidly Democratic, aligning with the market’s 94.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing or turnout collapse not seen in prior elections. Late developments such as primary consolidation or national political shifts could influence margins but face steep structural barriers in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$18,739วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district, covering Manhattan neighborhoods including the Upper West Side and Midtown, has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, reflected in its strong partisan lean. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the seat for the June 23 Democratic primary, where polling shows a competitive field among candidates including Micah Lasher, Alex Bores, Jack Schlossberg, and George Conway, yet all major contenders are Democrats. Forecasters rate the general election as solidly Democratic, aligning with the market’s 94.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing or turnout collapse not seen in prior elections. Late developments such as primary consolidation or national political shifts could influence margins but face steep structural barriers in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$18,739วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 12th congressional district, covering Manhattan neighborhoods including the Upper West Side and Midtown, has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, reflected in its strong partisan lean. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the seat for the June 23 Democratic primary, where polling shows a competitive field among candidates including Micah Lasher, Alex Bores, Jack Schlossberg, and George Conway, yet all major contenders are Democrats. Forecasters rate the general election as solidly Democratic, aligning with the market’s 94.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing or turnout collapse not seen in prior elections. Late developments such as primary consolidation or national political shifts could influence margins but face steep structural barriers in this district.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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