Republican nominee Mike Kennedy, fresh off a dominant 79% win at the April 25 state convention that canceled the June 23 primary, drives trader consensus toward a 90.5% implied probability of a GOP hold in Utah's 4th Congressional District. The R+14 district, redrawn by court order in late 2025, features heavy Republican voter registration and past general election margins exceeding 30 points under similar boundaries, with Kennedy's fundraising edge—$371,000 cash on hand versus Democrat Jonny Larsen's $3,000—bolstering his position amid Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others. Scenarios challenging this include a national Democratic midterm wave, Kennedy scandal, or further redistricting rulings before November 3, though historical base rates favor the incumbent party in safe seats.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วUT-04 House Election Winner
UT-04 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$926 ปริมาณ
91%
Democratic Party
$2,328 ปริมาณ
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican nominee Mike Kennedy, fresh off a dominant 79% win at the April 25 state convention that canceled the June 23 primary, drives trader consensus toward a 90.5% implied probability of a GOP hold in Utah's 4th Congressional District. The R+14 district, redrawn by court order in late 2025, features heavy Republican voter registration and past general election margins exceeding 30 points under similar boundaries, with Kennedy's fundraising edge—$371,000 cash on hand versus Democrat Jonny Larsen's $3,000—bolstering his position amid Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others. Scenarios challenging this include a national Democratic midterm wave, Kennedy scandal, or further redistricting rulings before November 3, though historical base rates favor the incumbent party in safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,254วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican nominee Mike Kennedy, fresh off a dominant 79% win at the April 25 state convention that canceled the June 23 primary, drives trader consensus toward a 90.5% implied probability of a GOP hold in Utah's 4th Congressional District. The R+14 district, redrawn by court order in late 2025, features heavy Republican voter registration and past general election margins exceeding 30 points under similar boundaries, with Kennedy's fundraising edge—$371,000 cash on hand versus Democrat Jonny Larsen's $3,000—bolstering his position amid Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others. Scenarios challenging this include a national Democratic midterm wave, Kennedy scandal, or further redistricting rulings before November 3, though historical base rates favor the incumbent party in safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,254วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican nominee Mike Kennedy, fresh off a dominant 79% win at the April 25 state convention that canceled the June 23 primary, drives trader consensus toward a 90.5% implied probability of a GOP hold in Utah's 4th Congressional District. The R+14 district, redrawn by court order in late 2025, features heavy Republican voter registration and past general election margins exceeding 30 points under similar boundaries, with Kennedy's fundraising edge—$371,000 cash on hand versus Democrat Jonny Larsen's $3,000—bolstering his position amid Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others. Scenarios challenging this include a national Democratic midterm wave, Kennedy scandal, or further redistricting rulings before November 3, though historical base rates favor the incumbent party in safe seats.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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