Redistricting by Florida's Republican-led legislature shifted the boundaries of the 9th congressional district to incorporate more Republican-leaning areas, including all of Indian River County, contributing to nonpartisan forecasts rating the seat as lean or likely Republican. Incumbent Darren Soto advanced unopposed in the Democratic primary, while Dan Green secured the Republican nomination in a crowded August 18 primary with 25.4% of the vote. Available polling shows Green ahead by a narrow margin, and forecasters project him receiving around 52% support in the November 3 general election. Trader pricing reflects these structural changes and limited recent polling data as the dominant influences on implied probabilities ahead of election day.