Greg Stanton holds a commanding lead in the AZ-04 House race due to the district’s D+4 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters such as Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. As the Democratic incumbent since 2019, Stanton benefits from strong name recognition, a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2 million, and a track record of reelection, including a roughly 7-point margin in 2024. Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser, a physician and Navy veteran, has raised under $600,000 and remains largely uncompetitive despite recent candidate forums on issues like health care costs, tariffs, and border policy. Early voting began October 7 ahead of the November 3 general election, with no major developments altering the race’s trajectory. The low implied probability for Jasser reflects the structural Democratic advantage and limited path to victory absent a significant national shift or unforeseen local event.