Trader consensus assigns a 95.5% implied probability to the Republican Party retaining Idaho's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong R+22 partisan lean—where Donald Trump won 71% in 2024—and incumbent Rep. Russ Fulcher's dominant fundraising, with $544,000 raised as of late March compared to zero from primary challengers Andy Briner and Joseph Morrison. Democratic primary contenders Ken Brungardt and Kaylee Peterson trail far behind financially in this safe Republican seat, per Cook Political Report ratings. The May 19 closed GOP primary looms, but Fulcher's position appears secure; realistic challenges include a surprise primary upset yielding a weakened nominee, a major scandal, or an improbable national Democratic wave flipping the district before the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วID-01 House Election Winner
ID-01 House Election Winner
$28,027 ปริมาณ
$28,027 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
96%
Democratic Party
3%
$28,027 ปริมาณ
$28,027 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$17,436 ปริมาณ
96%
Democratic Party
$10,591 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns a 95.5% implied probability to the Republican Party retaining Idaho's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong R+22 partisan lean—where Donald Trump won 71% in 2024—and incumbent Rep. Russ Fulcher's dominant fundraising, with $544,000 raised as of late March compared to zero from primary challengers Andy Briner and Joseph Morrison. Democratic primary contenders Ken Brungardt and Kaylee Peterson trail far behind financially in this safe Republican seat, per Cook Political Report ratings. The May 19 closed GOP primary looms, but Fulcher's position appears secure; realistic challenges include a surprise primary upset yielding a weakened nominee, a major scandal, or an improbable national Democratic wave flipping the district before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$28,027วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns a 95.5% implied probability to the Republican Party retaining Idaho's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong R+22 partisan lean—where Donald Trump won 71% in 2024—and incumbent Rep. Russ Fulcher's dominant fundraising, with $544,000 raised as of late March compared to zero from primary challengers Andy Briner and Joseph Morrison. Democratic primary contenders Ken Brungardt and Kaylee Peterson trail far behind financially in this safe Republican seat, per Cook Political Report ratings. The May 19 closed GOP primary looms, but Fulcher's position appears secure; realistic challenges include a surprise primary upset yielding a weakened nominee, a major scandal, or an improbable national Democratic wave flipping the district before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$28,027วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns a 95.5% implied probability to the Republican Party retaining Idaho's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong R+22 partisan lean—where Donald Trump won 71% in 2024—and incumbent Rep. Russ Fulcher's dominant fundraising, with $544,000 raised as of late March compared to zero from primary challengers Andy Briner and Joseph Morrison. Democratic primary contenders Ken Brungardt and Kaylee Peterson trail far behind financially in this safe Republican seat, per Cook Political Report ratings. The May 19 closed GOP primary looms, but Fulcher's position appears secure; realistic challenges include a surprise primary upset yielding a weakened nominee, a major scandal, or an improbable national Democratic wave flipping the district before the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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