Trader consensus prices Democratic victory at 93% in Illinois' 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong D+17 partisan lean and history of Democratic landslides—67% to 84% margins in recent cycles—despite the open seat left by retiring Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García. The March 17 primaries locked in Patty García, García's endorsed chief of staff, as the unopposed Democratic nominee amid controversy over his late withdrawal, while pharmacy technician Lupe Castillo advanced unopposed for Republicans after a prior 27% loss. Multiple independents, including former Democrats Mayra Macías and Byron Sigcho-Lopez, are in the field, but ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem it Solid/Safe Democratic. A major scandal, consolidated independent support, or national Republican wave could challenge this, though structural advantages favor Democrats ahead of the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วIL-04 House Election Winner
IL-04 House Election Winner
$32,936 ปริมาณ
$32,936 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
6%
$32,936 ปริมาณ
$32,936 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$18,972 ปริมาณ
93%
Republican Party
$13,964 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Democratic victory at 93% in Illinois' 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong D+17 partisan lean and history of Democratic landslides—67% to 84% margins in recent cycles—despite the open seat left by retiring Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García. The March 17 primaries locked in Patty García, García's endorsed chief of staff, as the unopposed Democratic nominee amid controversy over his late withdrawal, while pharmacy technician Lupe Castillo advanced unopposed for Republicans after a prior 27% loss. Multiple independents, including former Democrats Mayra Macías and Byron Sigcho-Lopez, are in the field, but ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem it Solid/Safe Democratic. A major scandal, consolidated independent support, or national Republican wave could challenge this, though structural advantages favor Democrats ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$32,936วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Democratic victory at 93% in Illinois' 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong D+17 partisan lean and history of Democratic landslides—67% to 84% margins in recent cycles—despite the open seat left by retiring Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García. The March 17 primaries locked in Patty García, García's endorsed chief of staff, as the unopposed Democratic nominee amid controversy over his late withdrawal, while pharmacy technician Lupe Castillo advanced unopposed for Republicans after a prior 27% loss. Multiple independents, including former Democrats Mayra Macías and Byron Sigcho-Lopez, are in the field, but ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem it Solid/Safe Democratic. A major scandal, consolidated independent support, or national Republican wave could challenge this, though structural advantages favor Democrats ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$32,936วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Democratic victory at 93% in Illinois' 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong D+17 partisan lean and history of Democratic landslides—67% to 84% margins in recent cycles—despite the open seat left by retiring Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García. The March 17 primaries locked in Patty García, García's endorsed chief of staff, as the unopposed Democratic nominee amid controversy over his late withdrawal, while pharmacy technician Lupe Castillo advanced unopposed for Republicans after a prior 27% loss. Multiple independents, including former Democrats Mayra Macías and Byron Sigcho-Lopez, are in the field, but ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem it Solid/Safe Democratic. A major scandal, consolidated independent support, or national Republican wave could challenge this, though structural advantages favor Democrats ahead of the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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