The Democratic Party holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the CA-10 House race due to the district’s strong partisan lean in the San Francisco Bay Area, where Democratic voter registration exceeds 50% and recent redistricting under Proposition 50 further solidified the advantage. Incumbent Representative Mark DeSaulnier, who captured 66.5% in the prior cycle, faces only limited Republican primary opposition and benefits from the broader midterm environment, in which national polling shows Democrats leading the generic ballot by several points amid dissatisfaction with the Trump administration. The June 2 primary and November general timeline leave little room for late shifts absent an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent. Trader consensus reflects these structural and historical factors rather than short-term volatility.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-10 House Election Winner
CA-10 House Election Winner
$15,171 ปริมาณ
$15,171 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$15,171 ปริมาณ
$15,171 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$9,547 ปริมาณ
94%
Republican Party
$5,624 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the CA-10 House race due to the district’s strong partisan lean in the San Francisco Bay Area, where Democratic voter registration exceeds 50% and recent redistricting under Proposition 50 further solidified the advantage. Incumbent Representative Mark DeSaulnier, who captured 66.5% in the prior cycle, faces only limited Republican primary opposition and benefits from the broader midterm environment, in which national polling shows Democrats leading the generic ballot by several points amid dissatisfaction with the Trump administration. The June 2 primary and November general timeline leave little room for late shifts absent an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent. Trader consensus reflects these structural and historical factors rather than short-term volatility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,171วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the CA-10 House race due to the district’s strong partisan lean in the San Francisco Bay Area, where Democratic voter registration exceeds 50% and recent redistricting under Proposition 50 further solidified the advantage. Incumbent Representative Mark DeSaulnier, who captured 66.5% in the prior cycle, faces only limited Republican primary opposition and benefits from the broader midterm environment, in which national polling shows Democrats leading the generic ballot by several points amid dissatisfaction with the Trump administration. The June 2 primary and November general timeline leave little room for late shifts absent an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent. Trader consensus reflects these structural and historical factors rather than short-term volatility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,171วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the CA-10 House race due to the district’s strong partisan lean in the San Francisco Bay Area, where Democratic voter registration exceeds 50% and recent redistricting under Proposition 50 further solidified the advantage. Incumbent Representative Mark DeSaulnier, who captured 66.5% in the prior cycle, faces only limited Republican primary opposition and benefits from the broader midterm environment, in which national polling shows Democrats leading the generic ballot by several points amid dissatisfaction with the Trump administration. The June 2 primary and November general timeline leave little room for late shifts absent an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent. Trader consensus reflects these structural and historical factors rather than short-term volatility.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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